Vietnam's population reached 101.3 million in 2024.

Under the GSO's medium-growth scenario, the country's population is projected to reach approximately 114.2 million by 2074. The low-growth scenario projects a population of 103.9 million, while the high-growth scenario estimates 118.5 million.

Under the medium scenario, Vietnam's annual population growth rate is expected to average 0.66% between 2024 and 2029 before gradually slowing.

By 2060, population growth is projected to reach zero, effectively marking the point at which the country's population stops growing. From 2061 onward, annual growth is expected to become negative.

Compared with demographic projections published in 2019, this represents an earlier turning point. The previous forecast anticipated Vietnam's population would stabilize between 2064 and 2069.

Population decline could begin in 2051

Under the low-fertility scenario, Vietnam would enter negative population growth even sooner.

The country's population would begin shrinking in 2051, roughly a decade earlier than under the medium scenario.

The decline is also expected to accelerate over time.

Between 2049 and 2054, the population would decrease by an average of 0.05% per year.

By the final projection period of 2069 - 2074, annual population decline would reach 0.44%, equivalent to an average loss of approximately 461,000 people each year.

Earlier projections released in 2019 suggested negative population growth would begin after 2054, with annual declines of about 200,000 people by 2064 - 2069.

Vietnam is currently pursuing policies aimed at maintaining replacement-level fertility.

Under the high-growth scenario, where fertility gradually rises to 2.01 children per woman by the end of the projection period, the country's population would continue growing modestly through 2074, adding roughly 58,000 people annually.

Six provinces expected to record population decline first 

The GSO's provincial projections extend through 2049.

Under the medium scenario, population growth is expected to slow across almost every province.

During the 2045–2049 period, six provinces are forecast to record negative population growth:

Vinh Long: -0.3%
Dong Thap: -0.2%
Can Tho: -0.2%
Ca Mau: -0.2%
Tay Ninh: -0.1%
An Giang: -0.1%

These provinces currently have some of Vietnam's lowest fertility rates.

Among them, Vinh Long is projected to become the first province where population growth stops, beginning in 2034, with a population of approximately 3.38 million.

By 2039, its annual population growth rate is expected to fall to -0.1%, equivalent to a decline of nearly 2,900 people per year.

Dong Thap is forecast to reach zero population growth around 2045, while Ho Chi Minh City is expected to stop growing around 2049 under the medium scenario.

At the same time, Hanoi's annual population growth rate is projected to slow to 0.3%, although the capital will continue adding residents.

Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City remain the largest cities

Despite slowing growth, Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi are projected to remain Vietnam's two largest metropolitan areas in 2049.

By that year, Ho Chi Minh City's population is expected to reach approximately 15.3 million, while Hanoi is projected to have around 10.3 million residents.

Population experts warn that prolonged negative population growth could accelerate population aging, reduce the size of the labor force and place increasing pressure on social welfare systems and elderly care services.

For that reason, Vietnam, like many other countries facing declining birth rates, is working to maintain replacement-level fertility rather than allowing fertility rates to fall further.

Vo Thu