A 120-meter-wide, 10-lane road, connecting Gia Binh International Airport with Hanoi, proposed by Sun Group for investment under the PPP model, has a total capital investment of over VND25,000 billion for the section passing through Bac Ninh alone.

This project serves as the backbone infrastructure connecting the Capital Region, servicing Gia Binh Airport and creating development space for the entire area.

Major infrastructure projects like Gia Binh Airport, along with other mega-projects now under implementation, are raising a new question for credit policy. Can SBV continue to use the credit room mechanism to finance infrastructure works worth tens of trillions of dong that exert a spillover effect across the entire economy?

This is likely why SBV decided to exclude outstanding loans for 18 strategic projects, including Gia Binh Airport, APEC 2027 facilities, railway projects, and other key infrastructure developments, from credit quotas.

The problem is that once the list of 18 projects was announced, debate quickly followed. Some viewed it as preferential treatment for three major private conglomerates. Others saw it differently: SBV may be testing a new approach to credit management for large-scale infrastructure projects.

Regarding the nature of the policy, SBV is neither providing funding nor guaranteeing loans, nor is it abolishing the credit growth cap.

Instead, it is allowing commercial banks to exclude newly extended loans for the 18 projects from their credit growth calculations. Banks must still conduct their own credit assessments, make independent lending decisions, and bear the full credit risk.

According to publicly available information, the total funding requirement for the 18 projects during 2026-2028 is estimated at VND752.138 trillion.

For credit management purposes, however, the more relevant figure is VND210.047 trillion - the financing required in 2026 alone. 

With this year's credit growth target set at around 15 percent, equivalent to nearly VND2.787 quadrillion in additional lending, the projects would account for roughly 7.5 percent of the economy's incremental credit. That scale is significant enough for SBV to consider a dedicated mechanism.

Conversely, even under the assumption that the entire VND210.047 trillion is financed through bank loans and excluded from the credit growth cap, system-wide credit growth would reach only about 16.1 percent, just 1.1 percentage points above the target.

This suggests that the impact on the banking system as a whole is far smaller than many observers have assumed.

No additional pressure on commercial banks

The real issue lies with individual commercial banks. A loan worth tens of trillions of Dong can rapidly consume a significant portion of the banks’ credit room, forcing them to choose between funding mega-projects and maintaining headroom for other clients. This paradox is what the SBV aims to untangle by designing a specific mechanism for these 18 projects.

Another crucial point is how the nature of these projects is perceived. According to the published portfolio, most are tied to development goals promoted by the Government, such as the Convention Center for APEC 2027, the Gia Binh International Airport area, railway projects, transport infrastructure, and urban areas developed in line with regional planning orientations.

Thus, from a positive viewpoint, the SBV's policy aims to enable large private enterprises to accelerate strategic infrastructure projects. This is also a way to nurture champion enterprises, boost economic strength, and gradually reduce reliance on FDI, a path that Japan and South Korea once trod to forge globally competitive conglomerates.

A new era of double-digit growth

The SBV's decision reflects a much larger calculus than just the 18 projects in a "new era" of double-digit development.

According to Government calculations, to achieve the double-digit growth target for the 2026-2030 period, Vietnam needs VND38.5 quadrillion in investment capital. Of this, the state budget covers only about VND8.5 quadrillion and FDI VND4.8 quadrillion, while roughly VND25.5 quadrillion must be mobilized from businesses and the capital market.

When the bulk of growth resources must originate from the non-budget sector, the banking system is tasked not only with controlling credit but also with channeling capital into growth engines such as large-scale infrastructure projects.

In that context, the mechanism for the 18 projects could be the first test for how Vietnam adjusts its credit tools to serve a new growth model.

Double-digit growth also requires a surge from millions of small and medium sized enterprises (SME). If capital flows for the "locomotive" help pave the way for mega-projects, capital flows for SMEs will build a broad foundation for growth.

Tu Giang