The local stock market is expected to have unpredictable moves in 2019 as global developments have become complicated, causing challenges to economic management in the country, said securities experts.

Speaking with vietstock.vn, Duong The Quang, general director of DongABank Securities Company, forecast 2019 to be a tough year, citing that both overseas and domestic factors may cause huge impacts on the local market.

First, the trade war between the U.S. and China have turned complicated, with its impacts seen in many aspects such as technology, capital and currency. Vietnam, having strong trade relationships with the two markets, will endure significant influence.

Second, the local economy, despite its impressive growth rate in 2018, still heavily depends on foreign direct investment (FDI) and a number of large companies. If the global economy suffers unfavorable movements, the enterprises will see their export-import activities slow down, thus dragging down the overall growth of the local economy.

Third, the Government is still struggling with exchange rate and inflation control amid the changing market context. Though the nation has seen rising foreign reserves in recent years, it has just met the minimum level designated by the International Monetary Fund. Therefore, the Government will only be able to make limited intervention in the market.

Given the predictions, the VN-Index of the Hochiminh Stock Exchange should be touching the maximum level of 1,050 points this year only, Quang said.

Huynh Minh Tuan, business director of VNDirect Securities Company, also agreed that the market would continue suffering global threats like in 2018, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening policy and the U.S.-China trade war.

However, the pressure will be milder than in 2018 as the risks have been priced into stock prices lately. From a technical perspective, the main index will seesaw in the 800-point range or recover to around 1,000 points this year, he added.

The uncertainty has been witnessed in recent trading sessions. The VN-Index lost steam after two winning sessions today, January 22, dropping 4.5 points, or 0.49%, against the previous day to close at the intraday low of 906.55. The Hochiminh Stock Exchange saw 152 million shares worth nearly VND2.7 trillion changing hands at the end of the day, down 8% and 18%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the HNX-Index of the Hanoi Stock Exchange lost 0.83 point, or 0.8%, at 102.54, with losers outnumbering gainers by 75 to 54. Market turnover turned sluggish with 26.2 million shares worth VND309.7 billion exchanged, slumping 29% and 24% versus the session earlier, respectively.

SGT