VietNamNet Bridge - US President-elect Donald Trump is opposed to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. Will this affect Vietnam’s textile and garment exports to the US?

The Vietnam Textile & Garment Group (Vinatex), the largest domestic textile & garment producer, is more cautious about its future prospects after hearing news about the US election. 

Le Tien Truong, Vinatex’s general director, said exports may meet difficulties next year because of Brexit and the victory of Trump. 

Vietnam will have to struggle to maintain export growth because of increased competition from Chinese and Bangladeshi exporters, the decrease in global trade, the impact from Brexit and the unpredictability of TPP.

Truong said the export growth rate in the next year may slow down to 5-7 percent from two-digit growth rates in the previous years. 

In 2015, the exports from foreign-invested enterprises made up 70 percent of total export turnover. 

Vietnam will have to struggle to maintain export growth because of increased competition from Chinese and Bangladeshi exporters, the decrease in global trade, the impact from Brexit and the unpredictability of TPP.

Vitas’s chair Vu Duc Giang was once confident when saying that Vietnam has been in a special position in the world market even before it joined TPP.

“Since it joined WTO, the textile & garment industry has been witnessing a high growth rate of 17-18 percent per annum. The figure is expected to rise to 20 percent when TPP takes effect,” Giang said.

In fact, in the first nine months of 2016, Vietnam’s textile & garment export turnover was $17.8 billion, a 4.6 percent increase compared with the same period of the last year. 

This shows a sharp decrease in export turnover growth compared with a 9.5 percent growth rate of the same period last year and the lowest growth rate in the last 10 years.

The US is Vietnam’s largest export market which consumes 49 percent of Vietnam’s textile & garment export turnover, followed by Japan (12 percent) and South Korea (10 percent).

In 2015, the shares of textile & garment companies such as TCM of Thanh Cong Investment & Trade Company, GMC of Sai Gon Trade & Garment, TNG of TNG Investment & Trade led the market in terms of price increases thanks to the TPP effect. 

But the price decreased slightly in three trading sessions after the news about the US election on November 9.

Tran Hai Yen from Bao Viet Securities said Trump may raise tariffs on imports from trade partners. If this happens, exporters to the US, including Vietnam, would be affected.


Kim Chi