Unprecedented storm frequency and intensity

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), between September 11 and October 10, the East Sea recorded four tropical storms: Mitag (Storm No. 8), Ragasa (Storm No. 9), Bualoi (Storm No. 10), and Matmo (Storm No. 11). The latter three struck Vietnam directly, causing devastating losses to lives, property, and livelihoods.

Storm No. 9 Ragasa, formed on September 22, was ranked the strongest storm worldwide in 2025, with winds reaching level 17 and gusts beyond that. Although it weakened to a tropical depression upon landfall in Quang Ninh on September 25, Ragasa still triggered widespread heavy rainfall.

Just a day later, on the evening of September 26, Storm No. 10 Bualoi entered the central East Sea at an unusually fast pace - 30–35 km/h, nearly double the average speed - becoming an exceptionally dangerous system. It made landfall between Ha Tinh and northern Quang Tri late on September 28 with winds of level 11 and gusts of level 14. Along with strong winds, Bualoi brought extreme rainfall across northern Vietnam and as far south as Hue, lingering over land for more than 12 hours - a rare phenomenon.

Before the country could recover, Storm No. 11 Matmo formed on October 3, bringing level 10 winds and gusts up to level 13. Though it later moved into China and weakened near Lang Son province, its interaction with other weather systems caused severe flooding in northern mountainous areas and Hanoi.

Historic flooding and widespread destruction

Torrential rains from late September through early October led to upstream flooding, with water levels on major rivers - including the Cau, Thuong, Trung, and Ca Lo - exceeding third-level flood warnings and even surpassing historic flood peaks in some locations.

Flooding engulfed lower-lying provinces like Thai Nguyen, Lang Son, Bac Ninh, Cao Bang, and Hanoi, with several areas becoming isolated and transportation systems paralyzed. Residents were forced to evacuate, and many are still struggling to recover.

“This year alone, Vietnam has faced 20 different types of natural disasters,” said Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Nguyen Hoang Hiep. “We originally forecast around 13 storms for 2025, with 5–7 directly affecting the country. But as of now, 11 storms have formed, six of which have already impacted Vietnam - leaving heavy consequences.”

So far in 2025, natural disasters have resulted in 238 deaths and missing persons, 367 injuries, damage to over 258,000 homes, and losses across 555,000 hectares of rice and crops. The estimated economic loss stands at VND 33.5 trillion (approx. USD 1.37 billion), a significant increase from the same period in 2024.

Storm Matmo alone caused at least 15 fatalities or missing persons, submerged 16,900 homes, and impacted multiple provinces including Cao Bang, Thai Nguyen, Lang Son, and Hanoi.

Record-breaking rainfall across multiple regions

Combined effects from storm systems and other weather phenomena led to exceptional rainfall. Between September 25 and October 1, accumulated rainfall reached 150–250mm in many areas, exceeding 450mm in parts of Hanoi, Phu Tho, and Lao Cai.

From October 6 to 8, rainfall continued with totals of 150–300mm in northeastern regions, peaking at 450mm in Thai Nguyen. In central provinces from Thanh Hoa to Hue, rainfall between September 26 and October 1 exceeded 600mm in many areas.

Some meteorological stations reported daily rainfall totals surpassing historic October records and even the highest values of the year. Compared to multi-year averages, rainfall in northern Vietnam, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An was 100–200% higher, and in some mountainous areas, up to 450% above average.

More disasters likely in the month ahead

From now through November 10, the weather will remain volatile. Forecasts suggest 2–3 more storms or tropical depressions may form in the East Sea, with 1–2 potentially making landfall in Vietnam.

Cold air masses are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity, combining with other weather systems to bring more heavy rains, flash floods, landslides, and extreme weather events.

Average temperatures in northern Vietnam and the Thanh Hoa–Hue region will be close to seasonal norms, while other regions may see temperatures 0.5–1°C higher than usual. Rainfall in Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai is projected to be 20–40% above average.

Urgent warnings and preparedness measures

Meteorologists warn that under climate change conditions, natural disasters are becoming more severe, sudden, and unpredictable. Events like short-duration heavy rain, rapidly moving intense storms, flash floods, and landslides are increasingly frequent.

Authorities and citizens are urged to:

·        Closely follow short-term forecasts (1–3 days);

·        Regularly update preparedness plans, especially for agriculture, aquaculture, and infrastructure;

·        Enhance early warning systems in vulnerable areas;

·        And mobilize community resilience strategies to minimize disaster risks.

Bao Anh