Economist Le Ba Chi Nhan noted that, from a macroeconomic perspective, controlling credit to the real estate sector should not be viewed as a measure to tighten the market, but as a necessary adjustment to ensure the safety of the financial system and the quality of economic growth.

According to Nhan, real estate in Vietnam is highly interconnected with the banking system, the corporate bond market, public investment and household consumption. When credit flows too strongly into real estate within a short period, risks do not remain confined to this market but can spill over into macroeconomic stability, especially in the form of bad debt risks and imbalances in the medium- and long-term capital structure of the banking system.

Controlling credit at this time, therefore, is more of a preventive cyclical measure rather than a reaction to a crisis.

Increased home loan interest rates will create a clear adjustment in market behavior. Speculative cash flows using high financial leverage will decrease sharply, thereby slowing down the rate of asset price appreciation.

According to Nhan, this is necessary to bring real estate back to its true nature as a sector serving real housing needs and urban development, instead of becoming a channel for financial speculative asset storage.

At the macro level, this policy promotes the reallocation of economic resources. When credit no longer easily flows into projects with high expected returns but great risks, capital tends to shift to production, export, processing industries, infrastructure, and technological innovation, the areas that create real added value and long-term productivity for the economy.

A notable point is that the Vietnamese real estate market is entering a structural transition phase. If the previous period relied heavily on land price growth and financial leverage expansion, the next phase must rely on actual project development capacity, population absorption capacity, and asset exploitation efficiency.

This means that, in the short term, the market may grow more slowly. However, the level of stability and sustainability will be higher.

From a management perspective, the expert believes that the biggest challenge currently lies not in "tightening" or "loosening" credit, but in selective control.

“Credit should be prioritized for social housing projects, affordable commercial housing, projects with completed legal status, and the ability to bring products to market in a short time. If this principle is implemented well, the real estate market will still maintain its growth momentum without creating pressure on the national financial system,” said Nhan.

Steering, not blocking, capital flows 

Nhan said the current issue is not tightening or loosening real estate credit, but designing mechanisms to channel capital flows properly, and limit speculation while maintaining resources for companies that genuinely develop projects.

First, it is necessary to shift from controlling credit by sector to controlling by the risk level of the project and the purpose of capital use. All real estate should not be viewed as a high-risk area, because in reality, there is a huge difference between housing projects serving real needs, industrial zones, and complete urban areas versus projects involving land speculation. Credit should be prioritized for projects that have completed legal procedures, have clear implementation progress, and the ability to create real cash flow.

Second, it is necessary to strictly control capital flows into speculative activities through financial tools instead of purely administrative measures. For example, applying a higher credit risk weight for loans to buy a second property onwards or short-term loans for "flipping." This approach helps reduce speculation but still ensures that real homebuyers and project development enterprises are not restricted in accessing capital.

Third, a fundamental solution is to develop medium- and long-term capital channels outside the banking system. Currently, real estate enterprises rely heavily on bank credit, while the nature of this industry requires long-term capital. Restructuring the corporate bond market toward transparency, information standardization, and credit rating will help capable enterprises mobilize sustainable capital without creating pressure on the banking system.

Fourth, it is necessary to link credit policy with project legal procedure reforms. Reality shows that the biggest difficulty for real estate enterprises is not just capital but the legal lag that causes financial costs to skyrocket. When projects are approved quickly, capital turns over better, the demand for loans naturally decreases, and the credit risk for banks is also controlled.

Duy Anh