Exports climbed to more than US$475 billion, up 17 percent compared to 2024, while imports reached US$455 billion, rising 19.4 percent. However, the trade surplus narrowed to US$20.05 billion, down from US$24.77 billion in 2024.

The result places Vietnam among the world’s 25 largest trading economies.

Nguyen Bich Lam, former head of the General Statistics Office, now the Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance, described the US$930 billion mark as a bright highlight at a time when global trade continues to be shaped by geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism and prolonged monetary tightening.

This figure reflects Vietnam’s ability to sustain export momentum, effectively leverage free trade agreements and adapt flexibly to external volatility. The country has held its ground amid turbulent global currents. Notably, the record turnover was not driven solely by traditional industrial sectors.

In 2025, agricultural and seafood exports emerged as structural bright spots, generating US$48.56 billion in revenue while maintaining double-digit growth.

According to Lam, the composition of agricultural and seafood exports is gradually shifting from raw products to deeper processing, steadily raising value added. Domestic enterprises have also improved their capacity to meet high market standards, from traceability requirements to quality control and emissions management. These sectors retain a higher share of domestic value and depend less on imported inputs than many processing and manufacturing industries.

For that reason, agriculture and seafood are not only export standouts in terms of value, but also signals of a potential shift toward a higher-quality growth model rooted more firmly in domestic value creation.

Growth model reaching its limits

Alongside the US$930 billion trade record, Lam pointed to a steady decline in the size of the trade surplus. In 2023, total turnover exceeded US$681 billion with a surplus of US$28.3 billion. In 2024, turnover rose to US$786.3 billion while the surplus fell to US$24.77 billion. By 2025, despite turnover reaching US$930 billion, the surplus stood at just over US$20 billion.

This trajectory shows that while international trade is expanding rapidly in scale, the net value retained for economic growth is increasing more slowly, even declining. Record turnover therefore does not fully reflect the economy’s internal strength or the efficiency of its international trade activities.

“We must recognize that a record in scale is only a milestone, not the ultimate goal of an export-led growth strategy,” Lam cautioned.

A key reason for the narrowing surplus over the past two years, particularly in 2025, is that businesses have accelerated imports of materials and components to hedge against reciprocal tariff measures and exchange rate fluctuations.

In the short term, this represents a flexible and rational response. Structurally, however, it underscores the heavy reliance of export-oriented production on imported raw materials, especially in processing and manufacturing industries. Strong import growth helps sustain production momentum in the near term, but it also exposes a structural vulnerability in an international trade model still deeply dependent on external inputs.

Notably, the domestic economic sector continues to run a persistent trade deficit, while the surplus is generated by the foreign-invested sector. This means Vietnam’s trade has grown rapidly in scale, yet its endogenous foundation remains insufficiently strong to balance trade sustainably between domestic and FDI enterprises.

The 2025 trade picture also suggests that the international trade growth model based on scale expansion, low labor costs and assembly processing is approaching its limits. Room for extensive growth is narrowing, while compliance costs tied to international standards, green requirements and traceability continue to rise.

Persisting in the pursuit of record scale at any cost, Lam warned, risks trapping the economy in the low-value segment of global value chains.

From ‘grow fast’ to ‘grow strong and sustainable’

Against this backdrop, Lam argued that record turnover can no longer serve as the primary measure of effectiveness for the 2026-2030 period. Instead, trade policy must focus on raising the proportion of domestic value added and strengthening the role of private domestic enterprises, while developing sectors capable of retaining higher value and gradually reducing dependence on imported inputs.

The Government, he suggested, should articulate clear strategic messages to guide the restructuring of international trade, aligning it more closely with socio-economic development goals and reinforcing the long-term growth foundation of the economy.

In the new decade, trade performance must be assessed by quality, value retention capacity and the resilience of the goods trade balance, rather than by gross turnover alone.

Export-import strategy needs to shift its center of gravity from rapid scale expansion to improving the quality of trade growth. With the extensive growth model reaching its ceiling, the Government must steer a transition toward productivity-driven, technology-based and domestically anchored expansion.

The domestic economic sector must be developed into a pillar of exports, while the bright spots in agriculture and seafood should be transformed into strategic growth drivers.

Reducing reliance on imported inputs should become a central mission of international trade policy. Developing supporting industries and domestic supply chains is not merely a production issue but a core requirement for improving the quality of trade growth.

For 2026-2030, trade objectives should pivot toward enhancing value accumulation capacity, ensuring sustainable balance and elevating Vietnam’s position in global value chains, instead of chasing headline records.

“Only when goods trade shifts from ‘growing fast’ to ‘growing strong and sustainable’ will new records truly become a foundation for growth in 2026-2030 and beyond,” Nguyen Bich Lam emphasized once again.

Tam An