Market reports indicate declining liquidity, while end-user demand is starting to shape price movements, opening a correction phase after a rapid growth cycle.

According to the latest report from the Ministry of Construction, in 2025 apartment prices increased by 20–30 percent year on year, with some areas recording increases of over 40 percent, mainly in the mid-range and high-end segments.

Data from the Vietnam Association of Realtors’ Institute for Real Estate Research and Evaluation (VARS IRE) show that housing prices continued to climb and set new benchmarks in most regions. The apartment segment remained a major hotspot, as asking prices for new launches in large cities rose sharply.

In Hanoi, the average asking price for newly launched apartments reached VND100 million per sqm, up 40 percent compared with 2024. In HCMC (former), the average price stood at about VND111 million per sqm, up 23 percent year on year, with many high-end projects launched at the end of the year.

In the secondary market, apartment prices in Hanoi increased rapidly over a short period, with many areas seeing rises ranging from several hundred million dong to as much as billions of dong per unit.

Alongside price movements, the mismatch between supply and demand remains a key bottleneck. In some localities, mainly in southern regions, the supply of reasonably priced commercial housing has increased, helping partially rebalance supply and demand.

By contrast, in Hanoi, Da Nang and HCMC (former), the imbalance has become more pronounced. Although the supply of social housing has improved, it still lags far behind the supply of commercial housing, where prices commonly exceed VND80 million per sqm.

The market structure continues to shift strongly toward high-end, luxury and ultra-luxury segments, while affordable commercial housing remains largely absent.

FOMO cools down, price and liquidity adjusts

Regarding market demand, VARS IRE noted that while real housing demand remains crucial, the primary market driver continues to be investment demand. It is estimated that over 75 percent of transactions come from buyers acquiring their second and subsequent property, with approximately 10 percent utilizing short-term financial leverage.

However, by late 2025, the upward momentum of the apartment market began to slow. A segment of investors who bought due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) have started listing properties for "loss-cutting" sales, while price levels in central areas remain stable.

Nguyen Vu Cao, Chair of Khang Land, said the phenomenon of prices running ahead of liquidity clearly reflects market sentiment after the recovery phase.

He said price levels in the secondary market were largely formed based on expectations from the previous cycle, while actual purchasing power has been moving in line with current capital costs and incomes.

Cao said FOMO had been overstretched in recent times, as some buyers chased herd mentality and short-term trading strategies amid limited supply. This pushed prices up quickly and unevenly, particularly in the Hanoi market.

In 2026, the market is expected to enter a correction phase focused on revaluation and liquidity reallocation, rather than broad-based price surges or declines.

“Liquidity is likely to move away from segments with high prices but limited real use value and weak exploitation potential, shifting toward products that are easy to live in, easy to rent out and easy to transfer,” Cao said.

As for the risks in the 2026 real estate market, Cao said the greatest danger is local oversupply in certain areas, especially those that developed too rapidly in a short period.

Additionally, the use of high financial leverage and herd-based investment, driven by unverified information, poses significant risks as the market enters a more rigorous screening phase.

Furthermore, the widening gap between asking prices and the market's actual affordability is a factor investors need to monitor closely.

According to Cao, investors should return to fundamental principles, prioritizing products with clear and transparent legal status, and carefully evaluating cash flow, financial capacity, and developer reputation. At the same time, they should limit leverage and accept medium- to long-term investment strategies. 

"Prudence and financial discipline will be key factors in mitigating risk when the market fluctuates or reverses," he emphasized.

Hong Khanh