Professor Carl Thayer, a leading expert on Southeast Asia at the Australian Defence Forces Academy

What’s the purpose of Obama’s visit given it’s so late in his term of office?

President Obama is meeting his promise to former President Truong Tan Sang in 2013 “to do his level best to visit Vietnam” before his term of office expired.

In other words, he is reciprocating Sang’s visit and meeting protocol.

But Obama’s visit is much more than that.

President Obama wants to set the course for the future of bilateral relations with Vietnam as he did with Iran and Cuba.

In Vietnam’s case bilateral relations are much more advanced. President Obama would like to enlarge co-operation set out in the Agreement on Comprehensive Partnership.

He will address legacies of the past and he will look to the future.

Vietnam represents one of the success stories in President Obama’s rebalance towards Asia and the Pacific policy.

As an expert, what do you care about in this visit?

Vietnam has and is playing a significant and positive role in ASEAN, in regional affairs and globally.

I would like to see both sides address issues of concern in a constructive manner and more importantly, advance the bilateral relationship across all the areas in the comprehensive partnership, including political and diplomatic relations, trade and economic ties, science and technology, education and training, environment and health, war legacy issues, defence and security, protection and promotion of human rights, and culture, sports, and tourism.

The priority area is economic relations and the TPP.

Vietnam likely will ratify the TPP at the June sitting of the National Assembly.

US ratification is in doubt and will be decided next year.

I would like to see President Obama play a strong role in getting the US Senate to ratify the TPP.

There is so much talk recently about Washington removing the ban on weapons sales to Vietnam. What are the benefits for two countries if the US do it now?

The immediate benefit of lifting the arms embargo would be political and would end a legacy of the past.

There would be no more discrimination against Vietnam.

Beyond this, the ball is in Vietnam’s court to submit an expression of interest in what it would like to purchase.

Since the partial lifting of the arms embargo in 2014, it appears that Vietnam has taken no action.

What is clear, however, is that the lifting of the arms embargo would allow forward progress on the Joint Vision Statement on defence co-operation that identified trade in defence articles and technology leading to co-production.

Vietnam should be able to access US defence technology that would improve its ability to network its defence systems especially in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and maritime domain awareness.

This would create a link between US and Vietnamese national defence industries.

Whatever understanding and agreement is reached between President Obama and Vietnam’s leaders, this will be overshadowed by China’s rejection of the Arbitral Tribunal’s decisions.

China will behave badly setting off an international propaganda campaign undermining UNCLOS and a rules-based order in the South China Sea.

Given the election of a new president in the Philippines who is willing to open talks with China on the South China Sea, ASEAN consensus will be even more difficult to achieve.

Can you guess how the South China Sea disputes will be discussed in the visit?

Both sides will reach agreement that disputes in the South China Sea should be settled peacefully without force or the threat of force under international law including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Both sides will support freedom of navigation. Both sides likely will urge all parties to implement the decisions of the Arbitral Tribunal. And, of course, both sides will endorse ASEAN’s policy of implementing the DOC and concluding a Code of Conduct. Both sides are likely to express concerns over “recent developments” in the South China Sea without naming China.

From your point of view, what does Obama visit mean for bilateral ties?

President Obama’s visit will leave a road map for his successor to follow in developing relations with Vietnam.

Obama may retire but many Senators will remain in office. So bilateral relations are on a firm foundation and can be expected to expand in coming years.

Source: Dtinews