In the introduction, Thayer, a scholar in Vietnamese studies, now living in Australia, writes that the book authors all focus on one question – whether Vietnam has necessary conditions to become the next tiger economy of Asia, and, if yes, which factors will help Vietnam reach that end.

Thayer writes that the ‘story about Vietnam’s growth’ has lasted three decades, during which Vietnam’s economy has been growing stably annually with two-digit trade growth rates and significant foreign direct investment (FDI).

There have been ambitious predictions and statements about the country’s development potential. PwC has released a report with long-term predictions, saying the economy will get a 12 in-grade promotion in GDP rankings to become the 20th largest economy in the world by 2050. 

The Vietnamese Prime Minister has stated that Vietnam targets being a high-income country by 2045.

Many years ago, when Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), international media gave positive comments about Vietnam’s economy, saying that Vietnam is a tiger, a dragon and a rising star in Asia. However, there have not been further articles published after that.

Only recently have positive forecasts appeared again. The World Bank (WB), for example, commented 'The sun is still shining in Vietnam’, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that Vietnam is a bright spot in the dark-colored picture of the global economy.

The Covid-19 pandemic, war and escalating conflicts have shaken the global economy. Some international institutions have lowered their predictions about Vietnam’s economy but they still predict positive performance for Vietnam.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has predicted a 6.5 percent GDP growth rate for Vietnam in 2023 and 6.6 percent the next year. The predicted figures given by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are 6.5 percent in 2023 and 6.8 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, WB thinks Vietnam’s GDP will reach 6 percent this year and IMF has lowered its predicted GDP growth rate for Vietnam from 5.8 percent to 4.7 percent.

Looking back at 2022, Vietnam obtained a GDP growth rate of 8.02 percent, among the highest rates in the world, while its GDP value reached $409 billion, jumping to the 37th position in the world.

Its import-export turnover in 2022 reached a new high of over $732 billion. Vietnam now has nearly 1 million enterprises, an unprecedented figure in its history.

Nevertheless, Vietnam has been warned against ‘resting on its laurels’ as many problems still exist.

Up to 16,000-17,000 enterprises have had to leave the market each month. The domestic enterprises’ resilience, after Covid-19, remains weak and many of the businesses have reached the critical point, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

Vietnamese enterprises have been facing difficulties since the third quarter of 2022. Not only seeing export markets narrowing and the number of orders decreasing because of inflation, they have also been impacted by unexpected changes in policy.

The weak demand in the world market has had bad influence on production. Textile and garment, footwear and wooden furniture manufacturers have had to scale down production, lay off workers and cut working hours.

Vietnam’s growth rate in the first quarter 2023 was lower than other regional countries, including the Philippines (6.4 percent), Malaysia (5.6 percent), Indonesia (5.3 percent), India (6.1 percent) and China (4.5 percent). 

Some economists have expressed concern about the low GDP growth rate in the first half, just 4.14 percent, which means that Vietnam is still far from the targeted 6.5 percent for the whole year of 2023.

According to expert Nguyen Dinh Cung, Vietnam’s economy has been declining rapidly, 0.5 percentage point for every 10 years.

In 1991-2000, the GDP growth rate was 7.56 percent, then it dropped to 6.61 percent in 2001-2010, to 6 percent in 2011-2020. Meanwhile, the growth rate was estimated at 5.6 percent in 2021-2023. 

To obtain a growth rate of 7 percent in 2021-2025, Vietnam must reach 9 percent per annum in 2024-2025.

Lan Anh