Businesses operating self-consumption rooftop solar systems may be permitted to sell all surplus electricity generated to the national grid in the future, provided local power networks have sufficient capacity and are not overloaded, according to a senior official from Vietnam’s Electricity Authority.

Speaking at the seminar “Energy Transition - A Driver for Double-Digit Growth,” organized by Lao Dong newspaper on June 9, Trinh Quoc Vu, Deputy Director General of the Electricity Authority under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the ministry has developed three electricity demand growth scenarios for 2026.

The baseline scenario forecasts electricity demand growth of 5.5% compared with 2025. An operational scenario projects growth of up to 11.7%, while a contingency scenario anticipates demand rising by as much as 14.1%.

According to Vu, the ministry has closely monitored electricity consumption trends since the beginning of the year, particularly during periods of extreme heat.

Trinh Quoc Vu
Trinh Quoc Vu, Deputy Director General of the Electricity Authority. Photo: Lao Dong Newspaper.

During the heatwave from May 23 to May 27, electricity demand reached record levels. Northern Vietnam recorded peak power consumption of nearly 30,000 MW on May 27 alone.

“We expect that during extreme heatwaves in June, July and August, the peak load of the national power system could reach 60,000 MW, while peak demand in northern Vietnam may rise to 32,000 MW,” Vu said.

To prepare for potential extreme scenarios, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has instructed the Electricity Authority to coordinate with the National System and Market Operator (NSMO) in developing operational plans for the power system. The ministry has also directed Vietnam Electricity (EVN), power generation companies and the National Power Transmission Corporation to proactively implement measures to ensure safe and stable system operations.

Among the priorities is accelerating investment in battery energy storage systems (BESS) in major demand centers. These facilities are expected to enhance system flexibility and provide additional capacity during peak consumption periods, especially in the evening.

Electricity consumption patterns in 2026 show significantly higher demand during evening hours compared with daytime peaks. To reflect these changes, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has introduced a revised framework for peak, off-peak and normal electricity usage periods. The ministry is also amending Circular 60/2025 governing electricity pricing mechanisms.

“This adjustment is expected to support both the system operator and electricity market participants in maintaining reliable power supply throughout 2026,” Vu said.

Rooftop solar remains a key long-term solution

Looking beyond the immediate demand outlook, Vu emphasized the need to expand electricity generation capacity, particularly solar and wind power projects in northern Vietnam, where significant renewable energy development potential remains untapped.

However, he noted that pricing mechanisms remain a critical factor.

Because solar radiation levels in northern Vietnam are lower than in central and southern regions, solar power projects require higher electricity prices to ensure investment viability. In response, the Ministry of Industry and Trade established region-specific pricing frameworks for solar and wind energy in 2025, with northern Vietnam receiving the highest rates to reflect local conditions.

Regarding self-consumption rooftop solar systems, Vu said businesses could be allowed to sell all excess electricity generated if local grids are capable of absorbing the output. A key requirement is that projects operate through dedicated transmission lines connecting generators directly with electricity users.

“We are implementing a direct power purchase mechanism through dedicated connection lines. The regulation does not distinguish between rooftop solar, ground-mounted solar or floating solar projects, as long as they meet the requirements for dedicated connections,” he explained.

In the future, if regional power grids have adequate capacity and no risk of overload, businesses installing rooftop solar systems may be permitted to export 100% of surplus electricity to the grid.

For example, during public holidays or production shutdowns, all electricity generated by rooftop solar systems could potentially be supplied to the national grid, provided the system can safely receive the additional power, Vu noted.

Stable policies remain essential for energy transition

At the seminar, economist Nguyen Quoc Viet argued that electricity pricing should not be viewed as the sole instrument for regulating market behavior.

Referring to proposed adjustments to peak-hour schedules, he said such measures would not increase residential electricity prices but could help distribute risks more evenly among businesses while encouraging demand optimization and investment in energy storage technologies.

According to Viet, while Vietnam has yet to fully implement a two-component electricity pricing mechanism, adjustments to electricity consumption schedules remain an important policy tool for improving overall system efficiency.

He also stressed that the energy transition requires substantial investment capital, but equally important is a stable, transparent and predictable policy environment that provides businesses with confidence to make long-term investments.

Tam An