Today in Vietnam, the Party’s vision aligns with the people's aspirations for national prosperity. The question is no longer “Can we do it?” but “How will we act to make it happen?”

The strength of a golden population

Vietnam is a young country. Over 24 million people are of school age - nearly a quarter of the population. More than 65% of the population is of working age, offering a "golden window" for development that will remain open for just over a decade.

Yet, a golden population alone does not automatically lead to growth. The key question is: what are we doing to convert this potential into true momentum? The answer lies in policy, education, and an open business environment where young Vietnamese can thrive at home and on the global stage - creating new value and productivity, not merely serving as a source of cheap labor.

Just four decades ago, Vietnam was among the poorest nations in the world. In 1986, GDP per capita was under $700, and poverty affected nearly 60% of the population. Today, that figure is nearly $5,000, and poverty has fallen below 1%.

A rapidly growing middle class now accounts for 13% of the population, expanding by 1.5 million people each year. This demographic not only fuels consumer demand but also pressures policies to evolve and serves as a foundation for a more modern society.

Vietnam has maintained an average economic growth rate of 6.4% for decades - an impressive achievement in historical context.

Education has long been a point of national pride. Vietnamese students consistently rank among the top in global PISA assessments. Primary school enrollment exceeds 98%, lower secondary 95%, and upper secondary 80%. The adjusted years of schooling based on quality stand at 10.2 years - second only to Singapore in ASEAN.

The Politburo’s Resolution 71 on education reform targets a modern, equitable, and high-quality national education system, aiming for Vietnam to be among the world’s top 20 by 2045.

By 2030, Vietnam aims to achieve universal preschool for children aged 3 to 5, and compulsory education through lower secondary school. At least 85% of youth are expected to complete upper secondary education or equivalent, with progress in technology, AI, and English proficiency.

In healthcare, life expectancy rose from 70.5 years (1993) to 74.5 years (2023), while infant mortality significantly declined. About 93% of the population now has health insurance. In 1993, only 14% had access to electricity - today, it’s nearly 100%. Rural access to clean water has risen from 17% to 51%.

These numbers convey a clear message: development is not just about GDP growth but also about improving quality of life and expanding opportunity for all citizens.

Vision 2045: Becoming a high-income country

Vietnam has set its sights on becoming a high-income nation by 2045. To reach that goal, GDP per capita must grow by double digits annually over the next two decades. The roadmap includes green growth, inclusive development, digital transformation, and carbon emissions reduction.

Vietnam’s global commitments show its determination: cutting methane emissions by 30%, ending deforestation by 2030, and achieving net zero by 2050. According to the UNDP, Vietnam’s Human Development Index (HDI) in 2023 was 0.766 - placing it in the “high development” category, with low inequality and significant gender equality progress.

However, challenges remain. The population is aging quickly. Global trade is volatile. Automation and climate change are increasing pressure. Over the past decade, Vietnam’s productivity growth has averaged just 0.9% - lower than most peer countries. Vietnamese workers are still largely stuck in the lowest rungs of global value chains.

Why have many global tech giants chosen Thailand, Malaysia, or Indonesia over Vietnam? Why do private Vietnamese companies founded 30 years ago still lag behind major Chinese and South Korean corporations?

The root cause is not just capital or technology, but institutional constraints - legal frameworks, administrative procedures, investment policies, and implementation capacity.

Professor Tran Van Tho of Waseda University in Tokyo notes that Vietnam has never sustained a decade of 10%+ growth - a hallmark of Japan, South Korea, and China’s development miracles. Thus, Vietnam remains stuck in the lower middle-income trap.

A recent World Bank report emphasizes that the 2045 goal is highly ambitious. To achieve it, Vietnam must sustain productivity growth of 1.8% per year and an investment rate of 36% of GDP by 2030. Relying solely on investment would require an unsustainable 49% of GDP. Relying solely on productivity means exceeding the current 2% rate.

Under current projections, potential growth could fall to just 5% per year, putting the 2045 goal out of reach.

For years, Vietnam embraced the motto “stability for development” - and succeeded. But as old growth engines fade, it’s time to pivot to “development for stability.” Stability is impossible without new growth drivers, rising productivity, and institutional reform.

This shift requires broad and bold thinking: reforming bureaucracy, improving public investment efficiency, promoting innovation, expanding the digital economy, building green infrastructure, and empowering the private sector as a key growth engine.

Over the past 80 years, Vietnam has proven the strength of national will: securing independence, reunifying the country, launching economic reforms, and rising from poverty to middle-income status.

Today, the Party’s vision and the people’s aspirations converge in the quest for prosperity. The question is not “Can we?” but “How will we act to make it real?”

The recent 80th National Day celebration should not only be a moment of pride, but also a launchpad for a new era - one in which Vietnam reforms its institutions, unleashes resources, seizes the demographic dividend, overcomes the aging challenge, and secures its place among Asia’s leading nations.

Lan Anh