Economist Ngo Tri Long emphasized the critical moment in 1945 when Vietnam declared independence amid a devastated economy and severe social crises, including famine, illiteracy, and foreign aggression. For the next three decades, under a wartime command economy, Vietnam emphasized self-reliance. Though poor, the era laid the institutional and ideological foundations of an independent economy - marked by agricultural cooperatives, state-owned enterprises, and centralized distribution systems.

The subsidy period and the launch of Đổi Mới (1975–1986): After reunification, Vietnam adopted a centrally planned economy with hopes of rapid industrialization. However, this model triggered hyperinflation (at times exceeding 700% per year), production stagnation, and widespread shortages. By the mid-1980s, the country was gripped by a deep economic crisis - prompting the need for reform.

Comprehensive reform and global integration (1986–2000): The 6th Party Congress in 1986 marked a major turning point. Vietnam adopted market-oriented reforms under socialist orientation. Between 1990 and 2000, GDP grew by an average of 7.6% per year. Exports surged from USD 789 million in 1986 to over USD 14.5 billion by 2000. Vietnam normalized relations with the US and joined ASEAN in 1995, opening doors to global markets.

Deepening integration and high growth (2000–2020): Vietnam accelerated global integration in the 21st century, joining the WTO (2007) and signing several major FTAs such as CPTPP, EVFTA, and RCEP. By 2020, GDP reached over USD 270 billion, and per capita income surpassed USD 2,750, compared to USD 130 in 1990. Vietnam emerged as Asia’s new manufacturing powerhouse, attracting over USD 380 billion in cumulative FDI. Multidimensional poverty dropped from over 58% in 1993 to under 3% by 2020.

Adapting through crises (2020–2025): Despite the severe impact of COVID-19, Vietnam maintained positive growth in 2020 at 2.9%. By 2024, nominal GDP reached approximately USD 433 billion - ranking 5th in Southeast Asia - with per capita income at USD 4,620 (World Bank), officially placing Vietnam in the upper-middle-income group.

The numbers tell the story of progress

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long identified macroeconomic stability as the most significant achievement. From 2014–2024, average inflation was just 2.9% annually - well below the 4% target - demonstrating effective monetary policy and prudent macroeconomic management.

In 2024, the economic structure had shifted significantly: agriculture-forestry-fisheries made up 11.86% of GDP; industry and construction 37.64%; and services 50.5% - confirming the rise of services and industry as key growth drivers. Exports soared to USD 405.5 billion in 2024, with total trade reaching USD 786.3 billion and a trade surplus of nearly USD 24.8 billion.

From a mere USD 789 million in 1986, Vietnam’s exports have multiplied over 500-fold - a remarkable leap in production and integration. Today, Vietnam has signed and implemented 17 FTAs, including modern-generation agreements such as CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA, boosting supply chain resilience and market diversification.

Social indicators have also improved: life expectancy reached 74.5 years in 2023; infant mortality fell sharply; and health insurance now covers nearly 93% of the population.

Institutional breakthroughs: The foundation of future growth

Drawing from past achievements, Ngo Tri Long stressed that institutional reform is the cornerstone of sustainable development. Vietnam must build a transparent, modern, and law-based market economy. This requires streamlining administrative procedures, removing business barriers, ensuring fair competition, and improving public governance.

According to the 2023 Global Competitiveness Report by the World Economic Forum, Vietnam ranked 67th out of 141 countries in institutional quality - indicating significant room for reform.

Boosting productivity and innovation is key to escaping the middle-income trap

Vietnam’s labor productivity in 2023 reached about USD 18,000 (PPP) - just 20% of Malaysia’s and 6% of Singapore’s, according to the World Bank. To leap ahead, Vietnam must invest heavily in science and technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and green technologies - the sectors shaping the future global economy. A dynamic innovation ecosystem must be cultivated, empowering private enterprises to lead.

While the private sector contributes over 42% of GDP, its R&D investment remains low. Vietnam needs to raise R&D spending from 0.42% of GDP (2021) to at least 2% by 2030 - on par with South Korea during its early development stage - rather than falling far below the OECD average of 2.5%.

Green and digital transformation: A twin imperative

On building a green and digital economy, Ngo Tri Long noted that in the context of climate change and the global energy transition, Vietnam cannot follow the traditional “brown” development path. It currently has over 20 GW of installed solar power and more than 5 GW of wind power - ranking 9th globally in solar capacity (IEA 2024). Future development must prioritize green hydrogen and energy storage technologies.

Vietnam aims to raise the digital economy’s share of GDP from 16.5% in 2023 to over 30% by 2030. To achieve this, the country must lead in applying big data, AI, and online public services. Vietnam also plans to pilot a carbon market in 2025 and launch it officially by 2028 - offering an economic tool to curb emissions and harness opportunities in the circular economy.

Tien Phong