Vietnam's economy is growing at a faster pace than many other countries in the region and the world. Projections indicate that Vietnam could join the upper-middle-income group by 2025, with its economic scale set to surpass Singapore by 2029.

GDP to exceed Singapore by 2029

According to a report by the UK-based Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), Vietnam’s GDP is projected to reach $450 billion in 2024, ranking 34th globally and marking an increase of one position from the previous year.

By 2029, Vietnam's GDP is expected to grow to $676 billion, surpassing Singapore's forecasted $656 billion.

CEBR anticipates Vietnam's economic growth to remain robust, averaging 5.8% annually over the next five years and 5.6% annually during 2030–2039.

By 2039, Vietnam’s GDP is projected to reach $1.41 trillion, placing it 25th globally and second in Southeast Asia after Indonesia. This will position Vietnam ahead of the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Will Vietnam achieve upper-middle-income status?

In July 2023, data from the World Bank (WB) revealed that Vietnam's GDP for 2023 was approximately $430 billion, with a per capita income of $4,347.

Currently, Vietnam has not yet achieved the "upper-middle-income" classification.

The WB categorizes countries into four income groups based on per capita income: Low-income: Below $1,135, Lower-middle-income: $1,136–$4,465, Upper-middle-income: $4,466–$13,845, High-income: Above $13,845.

Based on CEBR's projections, Vietnam’s per capita income will reach $4,469 in 2024, crossing the threshold for upper-middle-income classification.

By 2025, Vietnam’s GDP per capita is expected to rise to $4,783, ranking 124th globally. By 2029, it is projected to hit $6,463 (117th globally), and by 2039, it could reach $12,727, climbing to 100th place.

While Vietnam's GDP per capita remains modest compared to other Southeast Asian nations, the country is making progress. In 2024, Vietnam is expected to rank 6th in ASEAN for GDP per capita, behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that by 2026, Vietnam will rise to 4th place in the ASEAN-6, surpassing Indonesia and the Philippines, with a GDP per capita of $6,140.

Technology: A catalyst for rapid advancement

Vietnam is uniquely positioned to accelerate its economic growth, especially through technological advancements.

The country has maintained a strong post-pandemic recovery, thanks to its openness to global trade, numerous bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, and its role as a critical link in the global supply chain.

Vietnam's attractiveness to foreign direct investment (FDI) is another major driver. In 2024, FDI inflows are projected to reach $40 billion, placing Vietnam among the top 15 developing countries for FDI.

Global tech giants have recognized Vietnam’s potential, with several high-profile investments announced recently:

Nvidia, the world’s largest chipmaker, has chosen Vietnam for its third artificial intelligence (AI) research center, following the U.S. and Taiwan.

Google has expanded its operations in Vietnam.

Apple supplier Foxconn has invested $80 million in chip production in Bac Giang Province.

Meta and SpaceX have revealed plans to invest heavily in Vietnam, with SpaceX committing $1.5 billion and the Trump

Organization pledging a similar amount for projects in Hung Yen Province.

This influx of technology-driven investments is expected to propel Vietnam into a higher tier of global economies, enhancing its competitive position and accelerating its journey toward upper-middle-income status.

Manh Ha