According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s produce exports to China experienced five consecutive months of negative growth compared to the same period in 2024. Specifically, January saw a 43.1% drop, February fell 32.1%, and March, April, and May declined by 16.7%, 35.5%, and 39.7% respectively.

By the end of May 2025, total fruit and vegetable exports to China amounted to just $1.1 billion, a sharp 35.3% decline year-on-year. At that point, China accounted for only 47.8% of Vietnam’s total fruit and vegetable export turnover.

Earlier in the year, several Vietnamese exporters temporarily halted durian shipments to China to rework supply chains and meet stricter requirements around cadmium and yellow O contamination.

However, starting in June, exports to China began to rebound as Vietnamese authorities resolved several technical trade barriers. The signing of new export protocols also facilitated increased shipments of bananas, coconuts, passion fruit, and other produce to China.

Still, the growth from June through August could not fully offset losses from the year’s first five months.

September marked a turning point. Fruit and vegetable exports to China surged to nearly $1.07 billion that month alone, sparking a strong recovery industry-wide. Thanks to this momentum, cumulative export growth for the first nine months of 2025 shifted from negative to positive, posting a 1.6% increase.

Exports continued to accelerate in October and November. In October, shipments to China reached $665.6 million - double the figure from October 2024. November also posted a nearly 93% increase, totaling $455 million.

By the end of November, produce exports to China had hit $4.98 billion, already exceeding 2024’s full-year record. This performance significantly contributed to Vietnam’s all-time high of $7.8 billion in total produce exports - with December still to be counted.

Industry forecasts suggest that total fruit and vegetable exports to China may reach $5.5 billion for the year.

According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (Vinafruit), China remains a highly promising market due to Vietnam’s geographic proximity and integrated logistics network via land, rail, and sea - helping reduce both costs and delivery times.

In recent years, multiple official export protocols for Vietnamese produce to China have been signed, opening new market opportunities for local businesses.

If these opportunities are fully leveraged, Vietnam could realistically target $8 to $10 billion in annual produce exports to China in the coming years. However, Vinafruit leaders warn that China maintains strict standards on traceability, quality control, and packaging - forcing Vietnamese enterprises to continuously improve operations to maintain their competitive edge.

Tam An