It has been a long time since international media reported such positive news amid the economic ups and downs that began with COVID-19.

This data, cited from the General Statistics Office, indicates that Vietnam's GDP in the first nine months of 2024 is estimated to have grown by 6.82% compared to the same period last year, gradually returning to an upward growth trajectory.

This is good news despite the significant socio-economic impacts left by Typhoon Yagi, which affected more than 20 northern provinces, accounting for over 40% of the nation's GDP. The typhoon caused initial estimated damages of 81.503 trillion VND, with the banking sector alone facing a total affected debt of 165 trillion VND (approximately 6.6 billion USD).

Remarkably, the provinces most severely impacted by Typhoon Yagi also exhibited the highest growth rates, such as Lai Chau at 11.6%, Dien Bien at 10.55%, Phu Tho at 9.56%, Tuyen Quang at 9.14%, and Hoa Binh at 9.02%. The two provinces with the most significant damages, Quang Ninh and Hai Phong, also achieved high growth rates of 8.02% and 9.77%, respectively.

High growth has always been a pressure for each term and a demand of the country's reality to narrow the development gap with countries ahead in the region and globally.

Thus, the high growth in Q3 this year signals positive news after a series of subjective and objective factors, such as COVID-19, economic downturns, the “fear of responsibility” within the system, and Typhoon Yagi.

Leaders from the Ministry of Planning and Investment explained to me that the high growth rate is due to widespread digital transformation.

This explanation seems valid. Vietnam has been striving to “nest” and attract “eagles” in the AI and big data industries for several years, competing fiercely with neighboring countries like Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, which have already attracted such “eagles.”

However, the General Statistics Office should publish relevant data to show how significantly digital transformation has impacted growth.

Vietnam's growth has long depended heavily on increasing investment capital and consumption, clearly reflected in the country’s high ICOR (Incremental Capital-Output Ratio).

In recent years, funding for public investment has increased significantly to develop major projects such as the North-South Expressway, Long Thanh Airport, and Ring Roads 4 and 3 in Ho Chi Minh City, aiming to stimulate the economy amid declining private investment.

However, economic growth is no longer as dependent on investment capital as it used to be. Evidence shows that the disbursement of public investment capital reached only 47% in the first nine months of this year, with Ho Chi Minh City disbursing a mere 20% and Hanoi nearly 39%.

This is particularly evident in the cement and steel sectors, which face high inventory levels and many companies are struggling with debt.

Public investment is not proceeding as planned, and private investment has only increased by 7.1%, which is just over half of previous levels, yet growth continues to soar like a "rocket." This indicates that Vietnam's growth is no longer overly reliant on investment—something that has burdened its capital-intensive economy for decades.

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong stated, “We can understand that if the typhoon had not occurred, the growth figure for Q3 could have been even higher than 7.4%.”

He added that based on the results of Q3 and the first nine months, the Ministry of Planning and Investment will continue to report to the Prime Minister and the Government, aiming for a growth target of 7% for the entire year. “If conditions allow, we may strive for even higher than 7%,” he said.

If growth reaches the committed target, Vietnam will shine as a bright star in the East Asia-Pacific region.

According to the World Bank's updated report on the economic situation in the East Asia and Pacific region, released on October 8, the overall growth of the region is forecasted to reach 4.8% in 2024. The growth of the largest economy in the region, China, is projected to be only 4.8% in 2024.

Thus, the reported economic growth in Vietnam demonstrates that, at the macro level, the Vietnamese economy has significantly improved in quality and efficiency, showing remarkable resilience to natural disasters and global instability.

Tu Giang