Early heatwaves have pushed electricity consumption in Vietnam to record levels, while supply constraints are tightening. Power plants are now preparing multiple contingency scenarios to ensure stable electricity provision during this year’s summer peak.

The power sector faces dual pressure

At the onset of summer, the National System and Market Operation Company Limited (NSMO) reported that electricity demand has repeatedly set new records.

On March 31 alone, electricity consumption reached nearly 1.005 billion kWh. According to NSMO Deputy General Director Nguyen Quoc Trung, this indicates a rapid surge in system load.

From April 6 to April 10, daily consumption consistently exceeded 1 billion kWh, about one month earlier than in 2025. Notably, on April 8, national electricity demand peaked at 1.092 billion kWh, marking a new high for the year.

Forecasts suggest that 2026 could become the 12th consecutive year among the hottest on record. At the same time, extreme heatwaves are expected to intensify due to climate change.

Trung explained that short heatwaves lasting one to two days do not significantly increase demand. However, when high temperatures persist for four to five consecutive days, electricity demand can rise by 800 to 1,000 MW per day, even without changes in usage patterns.

If such heat continues for an additional three to four days, the cumulative increase in load could reach 3,000 to 4,000 MW.

As the system operator, Trung noted that the power sector is under pressure from both rising demand and supply challenges. In recent days, hydropower output has hovered around 70 million kWh per day, relatively low compared to total national demand. Meanwhile, coal-fired and gas-fired power generation are being affected by the global energy crisis.

Tran Huu Thanh, Deputy Director of Phu My Thermal Power Company, acknowledged that 2026 presents a difficult landscape for gas-fired power plants due to declining domestic gas supply, which is placing additional strain on the entire system.

According to Thanh, Phu My Thermal Power currently requires about 10 to 11 million cubic meters of gas per day. However, domestic gas sources in some regions are showing signs of depletion, forcing plants to consider supplementing with liquefied natural gas (LNG). This comes with higher costs and direct exposure to global energy market fluctuations.

“We still prioritize domestic gas because of its stability and relatively predictable pricing,” he said. However, increasing reliance on LNG will significantly raise generation costs.

Nguyen Huu Khanh Ngoc, Director of Tri An Hydropower Company, added that the 2026 dry season is becoming more challenging than usual, with early signs of El Nino appearing from the beginning of the year.

For Tri An, the challenge is no longer maximizing output, but balancing electricity generation with water storage.

“Tri An reservoir not only generates electricity but also supplies water to Ho Chi Minh City and the southeastern region. Every water release decision must be carefully calculated. Generating too much electricity risks water shortages downstream and for future seasons, while conserving water reduces available capacity during peak demand,” Ngoc explained.

Flexible scenarios to ensure electricity supply

To respond to El Nino conditions, Tri An Hydropower Plant began storing water early, starting in late 2025, and has shifted to more flexible operations. Instead of maintaining steady output based on planned targets, the plant prioritizes generation during peak demand hours while conserving water for long-term balance.

Despite this, all generating units remain on standby, capable of ramping up output within about 30 seconds. This rapid response is critical for maintaining system frequency, especially as renewable energy sources - which are inherently variable - account for an increasing share of the energy mix.

Similarly, Phu My Thermal Power has worked early with gas suppliers to develop stable fuel supply plans for the peak season. Flexible scenarios combining domestic gas and LNG have been prepared to minimize the risk of supply disruptions. The company has also reviewed technical service contracts and backup materials to prevent unplanned outages during high-demand periods.

According to Thanh, the company successfully negotiated an increase in one gas supply from 1.4 billion cubic meters to 3 billion cubic meters. LNG supply from PV Gas is expected to rise to about 9.5 billion cubic meters, with an additional source from Hai Linh to be added in May.

Amid volatile fuel costs and rising demand forecasts, a representative from Power Generation Corporation 3 (EVNGENCO3) said the company has developed multiple operational scenarios, prioritizing the availability of generating units.

“Beyond capacity, this year’s dry season presents a comprehensive challenge involving both fuel supply and system operations,” the representative said.

EVNGENCO3 has coordinated early with suppliers to secure coal and gas while maintaining stable output and minimizing disruptions to ensure reliable electricity supply.

The company is also optimizing coordination among different power sources, including coal-fired, gas-fired, and hydropower, to enhance operational efficiency depending on system conditions.

Regarding the national electricity supply plan for 2026, Trinh Quoc Vu, Deputy Director General of the Electricity Authority, said the Ministry of Industry and Trade has developed three specific scenarios.

In the first six months of the year, electricity demand is projected to grow by about 8.5%, closely aligning with the baseline scenario.

However, contingency plans remain necessary to address unexpected fluctuations in demand, particularly given increasingly unpredictable weather conditions. Vu emphasized that, alongside operational efforts, public and business participation in energy conservation will be essential.

Tam An