Speculative heat cools, real demand leads

At a seminar titled “Outlook for Vietnam’s 2026 Real Estate Market: Where Will Investment Flow?” held on January 25, Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, said 2026 will mark a clear rebound as hundreds of previously stalled projects are legally cleared and reactivated. Housing supply could double or even triple compared to 2025, translating to roughly 200,000–300,000 new units.

While demand is also recovering, Dinh noted it will likely rise at a slower pace than supply, intensifying market competition.

“In this context, products that can generate cash flow and serve real end-users will have the advantage. Short-term speculative products will gradually lose their appeal,” Dinh stressed.

Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, a member of the Government’s Financial Policy Advisory Council, shared a similar view. While the 2026 economic growth targets are ambitious, he believes real estate prices will remain stable.

“As housing supply rises faster than demand, prices are likely to level off. Still, real estate remains a valuable future asset. If the economy grows sustainably, property will continue to serve as a safe haven for capital,” Nghia explained.

From a regulatory perspective, Ha Quang Hung, Deputy Director of the Housing and Real Estate Market Management Department (Ministry of Construction), emphasized that legal reforms enacted in 2025 and effective from 2026 are providing a more coherent policy framework.

The shift in mindset - from tight procedural control to efficient resource management - is seen as a key driver for the market’s recovery and long-term sustainability.

“Moving into 2026, the real estate market will be vibrant but cautious. The residential and real-use apartment segments will continue to lead. Buyers and investors are increasingly prioritizing projects with legal clarity, well-developed infrastructure, functional value, and reputable developers,” Hung said.

A shift away from speculation

From a financial standpoint, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at BIDV, projected that real estate credit will grow by around 15% in 2026. However, he clarified this does not mean capital flows will tighten. Vietnam’s credit growth remains high compared to regional standards.

He argued that the market cannot rely on speculative growth any longer. Reasonable credit controls will push the sector toward healthier, more sustainable development.

Luc also warned that property is no longer a priority investment area, and lending rates may be higher. As a result, real estate firms must diversify their funding sources, reduce dependency on bank credit, and focus on projects that cater to genuine housing needs.

Healthcare and wellness real estate rising

Discussing investment trends, several experts highlighted the growing demand for healthcare and wellness, especially amid ongoing socio-economic development.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Huy Nga, former Director of the Department of Preventive Medicine (Ministry of Health), pointed to senior living and health-oriented property as an increasingly urgent need, particularly in suburban areas with conducive living environments.

Phan Thi Mien, Deputy Director of the Vietnam Real Estate Research and Evaluation Institute, also predicted strong interest in resort-style and wellness real estate.

Expanding on this, Tomita Takahisa, Chairman of OSEN FUJI Group, said the combination of healthcare and real estate offers a distinct advantage over pure residential or investment properties. The segment is tailored to a long-term, repeatable need for wellness, recovery, and intergenerational living.

“When real estate aligns with essential needs, it becomes more resilient to market volatility and generates stable cash flow, rather than relying on price spikes or short-lived booms,” Tomita emphasized.

Hong Khanh