As Vietnam’s State Securities Commission (SSC) celebrates its 29th anniversary (November 28), the nation's stock market is entering its most transformative period in more than a decade.

Between 2020 and 2025, the market has undergone four foundational reforms: reducing the trading settlement cycle to T+2, deploying the KRX system, removing the pre-funding requirement via Circular 68/2024, and issuing Circular 102/2025 on financial safety indicators.

These reforms represent critical pillars in reshaping market structure and aligning Vietnam with international benchmarks in preparation for a potential FTSE Emerging Market upgrade.

From just two listed stocks in 2000 to over 1,600 today - with market capitalization equal to 120% of GDP - Vietnam's stock market has grown alongside a fast-developing economy. Yet, it is the 2020–2025 period that marks a pivotal shift, emphasizing operational quality, risk governance, and financial transparency.

A more stable market in 2025

As of November 23, 2025, the VN-Index had adjusted to 1,635.46 points, but underlying indicators remain strong.

Daily liquidity averages between $1 billion and $1.2 billion, near all-time highs.

Outstanding margin loans total $15 billion, equal to 115–119% of the sector’s total equity - well below the legal threshold of 200%.

Despite major fluctuations (a 95-point drop on October 20), there were no widespread forced liquidations.

Foreign investors have sold a net total of $5 billion over ten months, reducing foreign ownership to 15%, far below the 20–40% common in regional markets.

A period of intense market cleansing

Circular 102/2025 mandates that securities firms:

Increase risk coefficients for real estate and non-margin loans to 150%

Conduct stricter risk assessments using credit ratings

Deduct available capital when facing illiquid collateral or defaulted counterparties

Meet higher capital adequacy standards

These requirements drive a natural selection process in the industry. Under-capitalized firms or those with risky portfolios are pressured to revamp their business models. In contrast, firms with strong technology platforms and risk management systems are expected to rise to leadership positions.

Nguyen Minh Hoang, Director of Research and Growth Investment Specialist at Nhat Viet Securities (VFS), commented: “The 2020–2025 period is about cleansing and upgrading. These reforms force market participants to restructure, become more transparent, and prepare for FTSE inclusion. At VFS, we’re leveraging the KRX platform and big data analytics to optimize operations, while maintaining strict risk discipline to enhance the experience of individual investors - who account for over 90% of daily trading value.”

Outlook for 2026: Toward a new integration cycle

International analysts believe that if Vietnam meets the timeline for FTSE Emerging Market reclassification (technical review in March 2026, formal announcement in September 2026), and if macro conditions are favorable (interest rates at 5.6–6.0%, stable exchange rates, and EPS growth of 18–20%), the market could attract $6–8 billion in foreign capital from both active and passive funds.

In an optimistic scenario, the VN-Index could climb to 1,800–2,000 points in 2026, driven by four factors:

A surge in foreign capital post-upgrade

Market depth from the new KRX trading system

A strong corporate earnings cycle

Stable macroeconomic policies

A new chapter for Vietnam’s capital market

After 29 years, the Vietnamese stock market is stepping into a new chapter: one of greater stability, standardization, and global integration.

The 2026–2030 period will be a turning point, marked by:

Foreign capital inflows from index upgrades

Improved technology infrastructure

Enhanced risk governance frameworks

This opens a new growth cycle for both the market and the securities firms that can seize the opportunity at the right time.

Nhat Viet Securities