At the close of trading on March 9, the VN-Index dropped 115.05 points, or 6.51%, to 1,652.79 points. The VN30-Index fell nearly 6.5% to 1,780.71 points. On the HoSE exchange, 366 stocks declined, including 233 that hit the floor price. Only 11 stocks rose while 10 remained unchanged.

“Stock prices fell at an unprecedented pace. The decline was even steeper than when the US passed reciprocal tariffs under President Donald Trump in April last year. Almost all blue-chip stocks hit the floor, and selling pressure remained extremely large,” said Nguyen Tam, an investor in Hanoi.

According to Tam, the market fell steadily from the start of the session and reached its lowest level at the closing bell.

This behavior differs from most previous declines and resembles the drop seen in April last year. In many earlier corrections, the VN-Index would plunge quickly by 50 to 70 points before partially recovering later in the session.

On April 4, 2025, the VN-Index fell 70 points to around 1,160 early in the day after losing nearly 88 points in the previous session. However, by late morning the loss had narrowed to about 40 points.

Tam said rising oil prices are raising concerns about inflation and the possibility of tighter monetary policy. However, he noted that sharp declines often also create opportunities for investors to accumulate quality stocks at lower prices.

After the sell-off in early April last year, the market rebounded strongly and climbed to nearly 1,800 points just a few months later.

Luu Chi Khang, Director of the Research Center at CSI Securities, said higher oil prices intensify inflation fears. This may prompt banks to slow interest rate cuts or even raise rates, causing capital to flow out of riskier markets.

Phan Van Nhan, a stock market expert from SSI, said the sharp rise in oil prices, fears of inflation, panic selling, and margin calls combined to push stock prices down rapidly. According to Nhan, it is difficult to predict market prospects in the coming sessions. If oil prices remain elevated for a prolonged period, stocks could continue falling. However, if the conflict ends and oil prices drop sharply, the market could reverse immediately.

In fact, tensions in the Middle East caused WTI crude oil prices to surge about 30% early on March 9 in Asian trading, briefly exceeding US$118 per barrel after already rising 36% the previous week. Brent crude also jumped more than 27% to a similar level.

By the afternoon of March 9, oil prices had cooled somewhat, rising around 12 to 14% to roughly US$102 to US$104 per barrel.

Could the VN-Index fall further?

Despite the partial cooling in oil prices, the stock market still closed with a very deep loss. Margin calls, forced selling, and cross-selling pressures are often substantial after such sharp declines. Historical patterns suggest that the downward momentum could continue for several more sessions. At present, much depends on geopolitical developments worldwide.

In a post on his personal page, a senior leader at SSI Securities raised a question: fighting in Iran is pushing oil prices higher, but should it really cause such panic in Vietnam’s stock market?

Khang said growing anxiety and a widening sell-off will increase margin call pressure. With selling orders still extremely large, many accounts could face margin calls in the coming sessions, potentially triggering a wave of forced liquidations that could push the market lower. A support level is expected around the 1,540-point mark.

According to VNDirect Securities (VND), crude oil prices exceeding US$100 per barrel raise macroeconomic risks, but stock market valuations are increasingly tilting in favor of buyers.

Escalating military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has severely disrupted oil shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices sharply higher. This development is creating significant pressure on both the macroeconomy and stock markets.

VND noted that if oil prices remain above US$100 per barrel for an extended period, Vietnam’s consumer price index could face considerable upward pressure and may reach the government’s target ceiling of 4.5% in the second quarter of 2026. Higher oil prices could also put pressure on exchange rates and, if prolonged, reduce room for monetary policy adjustments.

The firm added that the VN-Index’s RSI indicator has dropped below 30, entering oversold territory. Technically, the market is currently moving around three key support levels: 1,660, 1,600 and 1,500 points.

Among them, the 1,500 level is considered critical. If it is breached, the market’s medium-term upward trend could be officially broken.

However, it should also be noted that valuations below the 1,660 level are becoming significantly more attractive. The VN-Index’s forward P/E at this range has fallen below the five-year average, while the P/B ratio is approaching levels where medium- and long-term capital typically begins accumulating during previous correction cycles.

Manh Ha