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Vietnam's fertility rate has fallen to a historic low of 1.91 children per woman. Photo: Hoang Ha.

Alarming fertility trends

The General Statistics Office (GSO) reported that after remaining relatively stable for 15 years, Vietnam's TFR has declined sharply in the past two years. From 1.96 in 2023, it fell to 1.91 in 2024.

Urban areas recorded even lower fertility rates (1.67 children per woman) compared to rural areas (2.08). Ho Chi Minh City had the lowest TFR nationwide at 1.39, while Ha Giang posted the highest at 2.69.

This decline reflects a trend seen in many countries, including Japan (TFR of 1.26), South Korea (0.78), and OECD nations (average TFR of 1.5). Once birth rates fall, they are notoriously difficult to reverse.

Implications of an aging population

Vietnam has been undergoing rapid population aging since 2011. In 2024, there were 14.2 million people aged 60 and older, a 4.7 million increase compared to 2014. By 2030, this figure is expected to reach 18 million.

The GSO highlighted the dual challenges of declining birth rates and population aging, which strain the economy through reduced labor force participation, increased healthcare spending, and greater demand for social infrastructure.

In the short term, aging affects labor force composition, potentially slowing economic growth. In the long term, it poses multifaceted challenges across economic, social, and cultural domains.

Policy recommendations

To address these challenges, the GSO proposed:

Encouraging higher birth rates: Tailoring policies to Vietnam’s economic and cultural conditions to slow the decline in fertility rates.

Engaging older workers: Creating mechanisms to encourage retirees, especially those aged 60–75 with technical expertise, to remain in the workforce.

Developing employment opportunities for seniors: Implementing policies to provide suitable jobs and improve income for older adults.

Many retirees in good health can contribute meaningfully to the economy. Utilizing their skills and experience not only reduces dependency ratios but also fosters economic productivity and intergenerational knowledge transfer.

The GSO emphasized the importance of innovative labor policies to balance economic demands with the needs of an aging society, ensuring long-term sustainability and development.

Nguyen Le