Power supply pressures expected to intensify from 2027

Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade held the National Energy Security Forum 2026 on November 10, where it released the Vietnam Energy Security Report 2026.

According to the report, Vietnam's energy system faced some of the most severe shocks in decades during 2026. The Strait of Hormuz was blocked for approximately six months, while Brent crude oil prices climbed as high as $118.35 per barrel.

Record-breaking heat and El Niño conditions also pushed electricity demand to unprecedented levels. Hydropower generation for the year is projected to be approximately 18.5 billion kWh lower than in 2025.

Despite these challenges, Vietnam remained among a small group of countries maintaining stable energy supplies.

Of the 177 countries surveyed in the report, 102, or 57.6%, were experiencing energy difficulties as of November 9, while 13 maintained stable conditions, including Vietnam.

The report noted that Vietnam had managed to ensure sufficient electricity supplies throughout 2026 despite numerous adverse factors.

Total electricity generation and imports are estimated at 356.2 billion kWh, up 10.3% year on year and approximately 6.2 billion kWh above the baseline scenario.

Peak nationwide electricity demand reached 57,537 MW on June 24, 2026, with northern Vietnam alone recording a peak of 30,248 MW.

No rotating power cuts were required during the year. Commercial electricity consumption rose 9.84% in the first ten months, broadly matching the country's GDP growth rate.

However, ensuring energy security is expected to become increasingly difficult in 2027 and even more challenging in 2028.

Electricity demand is forecast to continue growing by around 10% from an already high base, while new baseload generation facilities will not be operational in time. El Niño conditions could also persist until approximately June 2027.

Peak electricity demand in northern Vietnam is projected to reach 32,693-34,865 MW in 2027.

At a November 7 conference on national power system operations, Minister of Industry and Trade Le Manh Hung emphasized that sufficient energy, particularly electricity, must be guaranteed for economic development and people's daily lives under all circumstances.

He instructed that power generation and transmission projects designated for mandatory commissioning in 2027 must be completed on schedule.

Contingency plans, he stressed, should be designed to address potential risks rather than justify delays in project implementation.

EVN plans record $31.5 billion investment over five years

Nguyen Tai Anh, Deputy General Director of Vietnam Electricity (EVN), said the national power system was expected to meet electricity demand in 2026 and fulfill its assigned targets.

However, he warned that maintaining adequate supplies in 2027 would be extremely challenging, particularly because of the effects of El Niño.

To meet electricity demand during 2026-2030, EVN plans to invest approximately VND830 trillion ($31.5 billion), equivalent to an annual average of VND166 trillion ($6.3 billion).

This represents the largest investment program in the state-owned utility's history.

During 2021-2025, EVN invested VND492.48 trillion ($18.7 billion), achieving 102.8% of its planned target.

In the first nine months of 2026, investment reached VND86.96 trillion ($3.3 billion), equivalent to 70.4% of the annual plan. The group aims to meet its full-year investment target of VND123.56 trillion ($4.7 billion).

EVN is currently carrying out investment procedures for 22 power generation projects with a combined capacity of 9,710 MW under Vietnam's revised Power Development Plan VIII.

These include offshore wind projects in northern Vietnam, floating solar power facilities and flexible power generation sources.

The utility has also called for faster implementation of generation projects included in the revised national power development plan.

Under the plan, projects developed by investors outside EVN will need to bring approximately 85,000 MW of generation capacity into operation during 2026-2030.

EVN has proposed stronger inspections and closer monitoring of project implementation, including replacing investors responsible for projects that have experienced prolonged delays.

The group also wants obstacles to credit access and long-term financing for energy projects to be removed.

In particular, EVN has proposed excluding loans for nationally important electricity projects from credit exposure limits under the Law on Credit Institutions.

It has also called for broader access to green financing, bond markets and international capital.

Another proposal involves establishing an appropriate electricity transmission pricing mechanism to attract investment from different economic sectors under Vietnam's 2024 Electricity Law.

Such a mechanism could ease the financial burden on EVN and the National Power Transmission Corporation (EVNNPT).

Greater flexibility needed to protect energy security

Speaking at the forum, Nguyen Anh Tuan, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Energy Association, called for a change in how the electricity system is managed, particularly in balancing generation capacity with consumer demand.

He said the development of Vietnam's power system presents several challenges, including allocating investment risks, improving demand-side flexibility and determining which generation sources should receive priority.

As the share of wind and solar power increases, adjusting electricity generation to meet demand in real time is not always feasible.

Therefore, alongside developing new generation capacity, the power system should place greater emphasis on demand-side management.

Consumers should be encouraged to shift electricity consumption to periods when supply is more readily available, helping improve the balance between generation and demand.

Regarding investment priorities, Tuan suggested focusing first on rooftop solar power while resolving obstacles facing gas-fired and coal-fired power projects capable of being completed before 2030.

Electricity imports should also be considered as a supplementary supply option in urgent circumstances.

However, he cautioned that the benefits and risks of electricity imports must be carefully assessed in terms of national energy security.

Over the longer term, offshore wind power should receive greater attention as a potential source of electricity.

Meanwhile, battery energy storage systems and pumped-storage hydropower require further research to evaluate their investment efficiency and contribution to overall power system operations.

Tuan emphasized that energy security cannot be guaranteed simply by adding more generation capacity.

It also requires coordinated development of the generation mix, transmission infrastructure, operating mechanisms and electricity demand management.

Tam An