The VN-Index closed the week up 45.05 points (+2.84%) at 1,630, setting new milestones after four consecutive rising sessions. However, Friday’s decline of nearly 11 points ended its hot streak.

On the Hanoi exchange, the HNX-Index and UPCoM-Index also finished the week higher, at 282.34 and 109.61 points respectively.

Banking stocks took center stage after the State Bank of Vietnam announced a 50% cut in required reserves for certain credit institutions. Yet by week’s end, pressure to take profits weighed heavily on banks and later spread to real estate. Conversely, stocks with distinct growth stories - such as VIX, EIB, VSC, construction group CII, and energy stock BSR - stood out with strong gains.

Despite closing the week higher, the long upper wick on the weekly candle reflected profit-taking pressures. Liquidity remained exceptionally strong, averaging 69% higher than the past 20 weeks. On Friday alone, HoSE trading reached nearly 59.1 trillion VND (about 2.34 billion USD), up 6,300 billion VND (250 million USD) from the previous session.

However, foreign investors turned net sellers, offloading more than 3,000 billion VND (about 120 million USD) on HoSE, with heavy sales in blue-chip stocks such as Hoa Phat (HPG), FPT, MBB, VPB, VCB, VHM, and SHB.

After climbing from 1,100 points in April to over 1,600 now, analysts note growing caution. The VN-Index even touched a new all-time intraday high of 1,666 before retreating as selling pressure intensified.

CSI Securities observed that 75% of recent sessions with surging volume ended in losses, suggesting a correction phase may be ahead. While the weekly chart remains positive, Friday’s session signaled early selling pressure. CSI forecast that the uptrend is weakening and a pullback is likely in the coming week.

Speaking to VietNamNet, Luu Chi Khang, Director of Research at CSI Securities, noted that despite volatility, the market still enjoys strong drivers: hopes of Vietnam’s upgrade to “emerging market” status in September and potential US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

“Compared to other asset classes, equities remain at the top for profit growth. Liquidity is at record levels, drawing in strong capital flows,” Khang said.

Still, some brokerages urged caution. VCBS said the market’s strength indicator has peaked and begun to decline after the sharp rally. On the other hand, VNDirect predicted that any correction would be mild and expects the VN-Index could hit 1,900 within a year.

Maybank Investment Bank (MSVN) raised its year-end 2025 forecast by 20%, targeting 1,800 points, citing stable earnings growth and ample liquidity.

On August 18, the market opened higher, adding over 10 points, then quickly reversed into negative territory before rebounding again around 10 a.m. with the VN-Index at 1,637.

Manh Ha