However, he did not specify which scenarios or foundations could enable a high growth rates in the next 20 years.

VietNamNet has found that no division in the ministry has been assigned to draw up a plan to reach that end, and Ministry of Planning and Investment is going to merge with Ministry of Finance in just a couple of weeks. 

Analysts commented that two-digit growth rates in the next 20 years is an ambitious plan.

According to CIEM (Central Institute of Economic Management) former director Nguyen Dinh Cung, no country in the world can obtain two-digit growth rates for two decades. China and South Korea, known as two economies with continued high growth rates, had high growth rates for 15 years.

In 1960-1990, South Korea had average growth rate of 9.58 percent per annum and had growth rates of over 10 percent within 14 years, with the highest rate, 14.8 percent, obtained in 1973.

China, during its 30 years of reform (1977-2007), had a GDP growth rate of 10.02 percent on average. Its highest growth rate was seen in 1984, at 15.14 percent, and the high growth rates of over 10 percent were seen over 15 years.

In the case of Vietnam, analysts have noted that GDP growth rate has been declining, from 7.56 percent in 1991-2000 to 7.26 percent in 2001-2010 and 5.95 percent in 2011-2020, according to General Statistics Office (GSO). In 2021-2025, the average economic growth rate was nearly the same as the previous period.

Vietnam has never witnessed GDP growth rates exceeding 10 percent over many years since doi moi (renovation).

The target of ’10 percent growth rate for the next 20 years’ is higher than the target of 6.5-7 percent per annum in 2021-2025 set by the 13th Party Congress resolution.

Desiring high growth is justified for Vietnam to narrow the development gaps between Vietnam and other nations and overcome the threat of "lagging behind," first mentioned in the 7th National Party Congress Resolution in 1991.

The troika

Economists say Vietnam’s growth relies on ‘three horses of a troika’, including export, investment and consumption.

Regarding consumption, in the first 11 months of the year, the growth rate was just 5.8 percent (excluding the price increase), or just half of the figure in the pre-Covid-19 period.

Regarding investment, public investment has been going slowly. GSO reported that in the first 11 months, public investment capital was just equal to 73.5 percent of the yearly plan and increased modestly by 2.4 percent over the same period last year. The non-state investment also increased slowly, by 2.7 percent in 2023 and 7.1 percent in the first nine months of 2024.

Exports are now serving as the major driving force of the national economy. The export growth in the first 10 years was mostly created by export growth to the US (+ 24.2 percent) and the EU (+ 16.4 percent). However, the high growth rates were gained following minus growth rates of the previous year (- 15.8 percent and - 8.9 percent, respectively).

Vietnam is now the third biggest exporter to the US. The question is if Vietnam boosts exports to the US, will it jump into second or first position? This is crucial to ponder, especially in the context of the new US administration.

These figures show that the ‘troika’ doesn’t have enough power to gallop with the speed of over 10 percent for two decades.

Can Vietnam speed up to develop more rapidly? The answer is ‘yes’ if resources among people are liberated and business confidence is nurtured.

Developing the private sector and considering it the most important growth momentum was an outstanding idea mentioned by Dung at the MPI’s (Ministry of Planning and Investment) year-end review conference. 

2023 Statistical Yearbook showed that the state sector made up 20.54 percent of GDP, while foreign invested sector was 20.45 percent, which were both lower than the 50.46 percent of the private sector.

While the state sector only generates 7.9 percent of jobs, and FIEs (foreign invested enterprises) 10 percent, the figure is much higher, 82.1 percent, for the private sector.

Tu Giang