To understand where the remaining growth can originate, one can examine the familiar formula GDP = C + I + G + (X - M), where C is consumption, I is investment, G is government spending, X is exports, and M is imports.

However, data from the Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance shows that the fields required to grow faster are pressing against limits regarding prices, capital and imports.

Consumption is one example. Total retail sales of goods and consumer services rose 13.3 percent in the first eight months, but after excluding price increases, real growth was only 7.6 percent, close to the 7.4 percent recorded in the same period last year.

With that pace, it will be difficult for consumption alone to lift the economy to double-digit growth, especially as average CPI rose 4.45 percent in the first eight months already, with price pressures becoming increasingly evident in food, housing, electricity and water, fuel and construction materials.

Demand can be stimulated further, but when supply fails to keep pace, injecting more money into the market does not necessarily lead to a corresponding increase in goods and services. Therefore, to move from over 8 percent to 10 percent, the incremental growth must rely more heavily on investment.

More investment is required

Total investment capital of the society in six months reached VND1.81 quadrillion, up 12.9 percent; while FDI in 8 months reached $40.6 billion in registered capital and $17.25 billion in implemented capital. 

Investment capital demand for 2026 alone to serve double-digit growth targets is calculated at around VND5.1 quadrillion.

Specifically for public investment, the 8-month disbursement reached around VND509.6 trillion, up over VND100 trillion compared to the same period, but achieved barely 50 percent of the plan. 

This indicates a massive volume of allocated capital. The issue lies in how rapidly it reaches construction sites.

For the private sector, expanding investment faces distinct hurdles. By August 22, credit grew by 9.71 percent, outpacing the 7.97 percent growth in mobilization, while the average new lending interest rate climbed to 8.93 percent per year, about 0.85 percentage points higher than at the end of 2025.

Vietnam needs substantial additional capital to drive growth to 10 percent, but if incremental capital continues relying primarily on bank credit, doing so will prove increasingly difficult. 

Deposits are growing more slowly than credit, while capital costs are edging up rather than declining.

As investment increases, imports rise 

According to Statistics Office reports over the past 8 months, exports grew 22.4 percent, but imports surged even more, by 35.3 percent, leading to a trade deficit of $20.46 billion. 

Over 94 percent of imported goods were production materials, showing that a portion of machinery and raw materials imported serves investment and production, yet also indicating the economy remains significantly dependent on external inputs.

If investment continues rising sharply and drives imports along with it, I (investment) may rise, while the contribution of X - M (exports minus imports) to GDP will fall.

The FDI sector currently accounts for over 80 percent of export turnover, while domestic enterprises run a trade deficit exceeding $30 billion. To obtain the 10 percent growth rate, Vietnam needs greater investment, but the more it relies on capital and import inputs to expand production, the greater the pressure placed on credit and the trade balance.

If credit continues to grow faster than deposits, banks will have to find additional funding for lending, making it difficult for interest rates to fall. Meanwhile, if rates are kept low by injecting more liquidity, the pressure will shift to prices and the exchange rate, while CPI has already risen 4.45 percent in the first eight months.

VND1 quadrillion in capital can be unlocked

While monetary policy is already under considerable pressure, fiscal policy still has room to maneuver, with state budget revenue reaching nearly VND2.03 quadrillion in the first eight months, up 16.2 percent, while the budget deficit and public debt remain within limits. 

Public investment has disbursed only nearly 50 percent of the plan, meaning that before considering raising additional funds, there is still a large amount of capital already available but not yet put into the economy.

The same applies to the private sector. More than 1,000 stalled projects involving nearly VND1 quadrillion in investment capital have been cleared. Bringing these projects back to construction sites quickly would generate additional investment, jobs and output without putting further pressure for capital on the banking system.

Tu Giang