According to the IMF, national savings in 2021 equaled 30.7 percent of GDP, lower than the investment rate of 32.9 percent. However, this balance reversed starting in 2022. 

In 2023, savings climbed to 38 percent of GDP, while investment stood at only 31.6 percent. In 2024, the corresponding figures were 37.2 percent and 30.6 percent. And in 2025, savings remained at 34.9 percent of GDP, outpacing investment at 30.9 percent.

On average in 2021–2025, Vietnam saved 34.7 percent of GDP annually, compared to an investment rate of about 31.7 percent of GDP.

External balances also indicate significant resource inflows into Vietnam. Vietnam maintained a continuous trade surplus in goods over all five years, accumulating a total surplus of nearly $90 billion. 

Yet domestic businesses remain starved for capital, commercial banks continue aggressive deposit-gathering campaigns, and interest rates struggle to come down.

Domestic deficit, foreign surplus

According to Dr. Ly Dai Hung from the Vietnam Institute of Economics and World Economy, from early 2021 through April 2026, the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector consistently saved more than it invested, maintaining a surplus typically between 2 to 5 percent of GDP, and occasionally reaching nearly 6 percent.

The domestic sector followed the opposite trajectory. For over five years, domestic investment consistently outpaced self-generated savings, with a deficit typically ranging from 2 to 4 percent of GDP, peaking at around 5 percent in late 2025 and early 2026. 

In 1995, domestic enterprises accounted for 73 percent of total export value, while the FDI sector held just 27 percent. 

Three decades later, that ratio has almost completely inverted: FDI now accounts for roughly 80 percent of exports, leaving domestic firms with only 20 percent, according to Dr. Pham Anh Tuan from the Vietnam Institute of Economics and World Economy.

In 2025 alone, Vietnam achieved a trade surplus of around $20 billion. The FDI sector posted a massive trade surplus of $49.5 billion, while the domestic sector recorded a trade deficit of $29.4 billion.

The picture is clear: while the economy as a whole holds excess savings, the domestic sector suffers from a capital shortfall. Vietnam registers an overall trade surplus, yet domestic businesses remain in a trade deficit. The surplus and the deficit reside in two entirely separate spheres.

A portion of the income generated within Vietnam is subsequently remitted abroad. According to an analysis of national accounts by Dr. Bui Trinh, the income payments to the rest of the world totaled around $17 billion in 2021. 

In 2022–2025, he estimates these outward flows at $18–20 billion annually, and even higher in certain years, consisting primarily of profits, dividends, and loan interest.

Pressure on banks

Because the domestic sector invests more than it accumulates internally, and given that domestic capital markets remain underdeveloped, the vast majority of financing demand ultimately falls back on the banking system.

According to Hung, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) remained around 80 percent during 2013-2021, but then rose rapidly, approaching 110 percent in the first quarter of 2026.

The latest figures from the State Bank of Vietnam also show that outstanding credit has exceeded VND20.15 quadrillion, while deposits stand at around VND18.15 quadrillion. The gap between the two has reached VND2 quadrillion.

If Vietnam wants to sustain investment at 40 percent of GDP, it needs sources of funding that can stay with businesses for five years, 10 years or even longer.

The capital market, however, has yet to play that role. According to the World Bank, during 2019-2023, Vietnam raised an average of around $53.5 billion a year through the banking system, compared with only about $2.9 billion through the stock market.

Corporate bonds have also yet to take much of the burden off banks. The market's size reached around 15 percent of GDP in 2021 and 14 percent in 2022, before falling to 9.9 percent in 2023. It recovered to around 10.6 percent in 2024, but by the end of 2025, outstanding privately placed corporate bonds stood at only around VND1.15 quadrillion, equivalent to 9 percent of GDP.

Vietnam still lacks institutional investors willing to commit capital for 10 to 20 years. The country urgently requires pension funds, insurance providers, and investment funds of sufficient scale to act as long-term anchor investors. The Vietnam Social Security (VSS) fund alone manages assets equivalent to over 10 percent of GDP, according to World Bank data. 

This scale demonstrates that Vietnam is not devoid of long-term funds. What is required are safe investment mechanisms and guidelines to enable these pools of capital to participate in the broader capital markets.

Tu Giang