Newborn babies at Hà Nội Obstetrics and Gynaecology Hospital. — VNA/VNS Photo Minh Quyết

Nguyễn Thu Trang, 37, from Hoàng Mai District, Hà Nội, has a six-year-old daughter, but she has no intention of having more children.

The reason she gives is that her child is growing up, she has some free time and she wants to focus on herself, her career and enjoying life through travel and leisure.

She finds the idea of having another child and raising a baby unappealing. On weekends, when she has free time, she just wants to rest or visit her parents. Having another child will be very tiring, especially since she is nearly 40.

"We don't want to be burdened with raising another young child. We are happy with just one child so that we can provide for her properly," the mother said.

Đào Thục Trinh, 30, from Nam Từ Liêm District, Hà Nội, has been married for four years but has no plans to have children.

Both she and her husband prefer to enjoy the freedom of having a personal life without children.

Trinh explained that the decision came after seeing many of her friends struggle with the demands of motherhood, with little time for personal hobbies or career advancement.

In addition, the pressure of buying a house and the increasing cost of living are also among the reasons why they do not want to have children.

Đào Ngọc Hà, 36, from Long Biên District, Hà Nội, is still unmarried.

She says the reason is that many of her friends find marriage difficult, juggling domestic responsibilities, childcare and their careers.

They have little time for themselves or to focus on their careers.

Trang, Trinh and Hà are not an anomaly.

They are part of a growing group of young people who either choose not to marry, marry without wanting children, or opt for only one child in Việt Nam.

It is increasingly common that young people delay marriage, are afraid of giving birth for the responsibility that will entail. This forms a pattern which likely causes risks of a population crisis for the country in the future.

At a recent seminar on the Law on Population, Professor Nguyễn Thiện Nhân, a deputy of the 15th National Assembly term, warned that Việt Nam’s population could shrink to 46 million by 2200 and down to just five million by 2500.

According to a forecast by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), Việt Nam’s transition from an ageing population to an elderly one is happening much faster than in other countries, even those which are more developed.

This means that the country will face challenges such as workforce shortages, decreased economic competitiveness and increased social welfare burdens much sooner than anticipated.

Statistics from the Việt Nam Population Authority under the Ministry of Health reveal that the average age for first-time marriages in Việt Nam is rising.

In 1999, the average age was 24.1, by 2019, it had increased to 25.2 and by 2023, it had risen still further to 27.2.

In HCM City, the average age for first-time marriages has reached a record high of 30.4. For men, the average age for marriage is 29.3, while for women it is 25.1.

Urban women tend to have children later and have fewer children compared to those in rural areas.

The national birth rate is declining, with the total fertility rate in 2023 falling to 1.96 children per woman – an all-time low and is projected to continue decreasing.

The trend of getting married later and having fewer children is causing a noticeable decline in the population growth rate, from 1.15 per cent in 2019 to 0.84 per cent in 2023.

Causes and consequences

Phạm Mạnh Hà, a psychology expert at the Việt Nam National University in Hà Nội told Thanh Niên (Young People) online newspaper that there are several reasons why young people are hesitant to marry and have children.

The first is the economic burden, the rising cost of raising children, coupled with limited incomes, especially among the young.

Additionally, basic infrastructure in education, healthcare and social services, particularly in industrial and economic zones, remains inadequate.

The lack of support from the Government and the unequal division of childcare responsibilities between partners are also significant barriers.

Many young people also wish to focus on their careers, fearing that having children will hinder their chances for career advancement and personal development.

Another contributing factor is shifting social attitudes – women today have more life choices and face less social stigma if they choose not to marry or have children.

Furthermore, concerns about future uncertainties make many young people feel insecure and unprepared to provide a good life for children.

Modern contraception methods and high infertility treatment costs have also contributed to the declining birth rate.

Hà also believes that the trend of delayed marriages and reluctance to have children is significantly impacting Việt Nam's population, economy and social structure.

The traditional multi-generational family model is gradually being replaced by smaller nuclear families, or even by individuals choosing to live alone.

Elderly people wait for a medical examination at Thống Nhất Hospital, HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo Đinh Hằng

According to Minister of Health Đào Hồng Lan, prolonged low birth rates will lead to a range of social issues, such as rapid ageing, labour shortages and strains on social welfare systems.

Additionally, the decline in the number of children and the increasing proportion of elderly people means that the country will not be able to fully benefit from its demographic dividend.

Solutions

To maintain a stable replacement-level birth rate and ensure a sustainable population structure, the Government has taken action.

Prime Minister issued Decision No. 588/QĐ-TTg, on April 28, 2020, approving a programme to adjust birth rates in different regions and among different groups until 2030.

The plan focuses on encouraging citizens to have two children per family, particularly in regions where birth rates are low, and aims to improve policies supporting families and children.

Currently, the health ministry is drafting the Law on Population, which includes the goal of maintaining replacement-level fertility.

This will be presented to the Government this month and is expected to be reviewed by the National Assembly in 2025.

Also at the recent seminar on the Law on Population, Nhân proposed several measures for sustainable population growth and a prosperous society.

The measures include increasing wages, ensuring adequate working hours, providing affordable housing and improving healthcare and childcare support for families.

Specifically, for a family to have two children, the income of two working adults must be enough to support four people.

The working hours for employees must be reasonable (eight hours a day, 40 hours a week) to ensure they have time to find a life partner, take care of children, family and personal interests.

There should be a competitive housing market with State support and oversight to allow workers to rent or purchase homes at affordable prices.

Employment conditions, maternity and paternity leave, wages and career advancement opportunities should encourage family life and having children, without creating conflicts between work and family life.

Sharing household duties and child-rearing responsibilities equally between husband and wife are advised to be strengthened to promote gender equality.

Moreover, the Government should implement practical programmes to assist infertile couples in having children.

The health ministry is currently reviewing the measures and working with relevant ministries to develop and implement policies that are tailored to regional needs and existing demographic trends. — VNS