At the first Congress of the Party Committee of the Ministry of Finance, an ambitious target was set: average annual GDP growth of at least 10% and GDP per capita reaching USD 8,500 by 2030.

This is an unprecedented goal in Vietnam’s history. It reflects both national ambition and a test of reform capacity and governance.

From Doi Moi to a new global position

Nearly 40 years after the Doi Moi reforms, Vietnam has transformed from a centrally planned economy into a dynamic market-oriented system. By 2025, GDP is expected to reach USD 510 billion, ranking 32nd worldwide and 4th in ASEAN. In purchasing power parity terms, GDP is about USD 1.76 trillion, placing Vietnam 25th globally.

Per capita income has risen from USD 3,552 in 2020 to around USD 5,000 in 2025, with GNI per capita at USD 4,750 - officially surpassing the lower-middle-income threshold. Vietnam is now among the world’s 20 largest trading nations and a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI).

Most importantly, poverty reduction has been a remarkable achievement: from 60% of households in 1986 to just 1.9% today. Each time constraints are lifted, Vietnamese enterprises and citizens demonstrate their ability to drive transformation.

The “double-digit” challenge

Over the past two decades, Vietnam’s average annual GDP growth has been around 6.4%, never reaching double digits. Setting a 10% target means moving beyond familiar pathways. Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Chi Dung remarked: “Without new approaches and bold reforms, this goal will never be achieved.”

The Ministry of Finance’s report highlighted key challenges. First, the enormous need for investment capital. Achieving 10% growth requires simultaneous surges in public investment, private capital, and FDI. But excessive public spending could crowd out the private sector, while external borrowing faces interest rate and trade risks. Raising taxes could dampen consumption.

Second, productivity remains low. To sustain 10% growth, total factor productivity (TFP) must contribute 50.3% to growth and rise 5.2% annually - much higher than past levels. If TFP only grows at the historical 3%, GDP could fall short by 3–5 percentage points.

Third, domestic consumption is weak. Household spending is insufficient to drive growth, and government consumption cannot compensate.

Inflation is another risk. With an average fiscal deficit of 5% of GDP and rising public expenditure, inflation could exceed the 4–4.5% target. Power supply is also critical: 10% GDP growth means electricity demand rising 1.4–1.6 times faster than GDP. Without a robust energy strategy, growth will stall.

Finally, Vietnam’s industry remains shallow, with low localization, weak links between FDI and local firms, and underdeveloped sectors such as machinery, new materials, and defense industries.

Institutional bottlenecks and domestic capacity

The main obstacle lies not in capital, but in institutions. While the non-state economy accounts for over 50% of GDP, formally registered enterprises represent less than 10%. The economy still relies heavily on small family businesses, street vendors, and craft villages.

The 2030 target envisions 2 million operating enterprises, private sector growth of 10–12% per year, at least 20 firms in global value chains, 50 state-owned enterprises among Southeast Asia’s top 500, and one Vietnamese company in the global top 500.

But how can this be achieved when a single real estate project requires 40 different approvals, and business regulations still number nearly 16,000?

How can 2,887 stalled projects - worth USD 235 billion and covering 347,000 hectares - be unlocked for development?

Without institutional reform, the private sector cannot grow strong enough, leaving the economy dependent on cheap labor and outsourcing.

From 2026 to 2030, Vietnam aims to attract USD 200–300 billion in registered FDI and realize USD 150–200 billion, while raising localization above 40%. This is ambitious, but more importantly, FDI must become a catalyst for domestic enterprises.

If Vietnam wants to see its companies in the global top 500, it must cultivate strong domestic corporations, not rely solely on foreign investors.

The only path: Relying on people and businesses

Ho Chi Minh once said: “Whatever benefits the people must be done with all our might, whatever harms the people must be avoided.” Today, relying on the people means freeing businesses and unlocking society’s potential.

Institutional reforms must eliminate red tape, simplify business conditions, ensure land and credit transparency, and guarantee fair competition. Private enterprises must become the backbone of growth.

To reach 10%, Vietnam needs a powerful private sector driving green transition, circular economy, semiconductors, AI, renewable energy, and advanced materials - sectors that create high added value.

Property rights and contract enforcement must be strengthened. Entrepreneurs should not face travel restrictions for tax arrears. Many other obstacles must be cleared.

Alongside this, Vietnam needs a long-term energy strategy: expanding renewable power, building transmission infrastructure, and ensuring energy security ahead of demand.

Macroeconomic stability is also essential, with inflation around 4–4.5%, fiscal deficit at 5% of GDP, and public debt at 45% - a difficult but non-negotiable balance.

Destination 2030

Reaching USD 8,500 GDP per capita by 2030 means doubling income within five years - a feat with no precedent in Vietnam.

According to the World Bank, of more than 100 middle-income countries since the 1960s, only 13 have escaped the “middle-income trap.” The path is narrow, but not impossible.

The prerequisite is bold institutional reform, higher productivity, and unleashing the full potential of businesses and citizens.

Marking 80 years of nationhood, Vietnam faces a vital question: How will it pursue 10% growth?

If reforms are decisive, Vietnam has a chance to join the small group of countries that achieve high-income status.

Ten percent growth is both a dream and a test for today’s generation. The answer lies in removing constraints and empowering people and businesses - to continue the 80-year journey with a future worthy of the nation.

Tu Giang - Lan Anh