According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the total number of foreign travelers to Vietnam in the first nine months of the year was 8.9 million, an increase of 4.7 times compared with the same period last year, and higher than the target of 8 million travelers set for 2023.

The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism (MCST) estimated that Vietnam could receive at least 1.1-1.2 million foreign travelers a month in the last three months of the year. The figure may be higher in December, during peak season

The ministry will report to the government a higher target of foreign travelers in 2023, from 8 million to 12.5-13 million, an increase of 156 percent compared with the initial target.

An MCST official said other regional countries have also adjusted their targeted numbers of foreign travelers. In early 2023, Thailand lifted its target from 10 million foreign travelers to 30 million after realizing favorable conditions. Indonesia has also made a similar adjustment.

Vietluxtour CEO Tran The Dung said that there is no doubt that Vietnam will receive 13 million travelers after nearly 9 million arrived in the first three quarters.

Also according to Dung, the time from October to March is the high season for inbound tours. The number of foreign travelers and total revenue of Vietluxtour in the first six months of the year soared by 300 percent compared with that of 2022. 

The travel firm has prepared tourism products and taken bookings for 2024 and is cooperating with foreign partners to offer tours.

He said that with current growth, Vietnam can set the ambitious goal of receiving 18 million foreign travelers next year, which means full recovery to the pre-pandemic time (2019).

Most current conditions are favorable for travel firms with no major changes, convenient transport, and an open visa policy.

The demand in the US has recovered with 40 million people traveling abroad from the beginning of the year to July, or 8 percent higher than in 2019. 

The Chinese market is predicted to reopen and recover in 2024. Meanwhile, the number of South Korean travelers to Vietnam has been increasing sharply.

Cautious optimism

While travel firms are optimistic about the immediate time, Nguyen Duc Chi, a respected tourism expert, noted that MCST is still cautious even when setting goals for this year. 

Regarding the sources of tourists, Chi noted that South Korea has recovered the best among top 10 markets and it leads markets with 2.6 million travelers so far this year. 

Meanwhile, Vietnam can see a remarkable growth rate of 240 percent from the Indian market thanks to many non-stop air routes to Vietnam. A 267 percent growth rate has been reported for Cambodian tourists.

Nevertheless, visitors from some Western European countries, which have been exempted from visas for many years and have had their permitted stay extended to 45 days starting August 15, are mostly outside the top 10, and recovery has been slow (72 percent increase for France, 77 percent for Italy, 79 percent for the UK, 82 percent for Spain and 87 percent for Germany).

Meanwhile, the Chinese market, which provided one third of total tourists to Vietnam in 2019, has recovered by only 28 percent, though 1 million Chinese travelers have visited Vietnam and China ranks second in the top 10. A modest recovery of 18.4 percent has been reported for the Russian market because of political uncertainties.

According to Chi, bottlenecks which hinder the recovery of large markets need to be identified and prompt action taken to prepare for 2024.

Chinese and South Korean travelers alone account for half of foreign tourists to Vietnam. To attract travelers from China, more air routes, preferences in entry procedures, and adjusted tourism products are needed. 

Ngoc Ha