World Bank experts say that Vietnam is likely to suffer from climate-caused shocks because of ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). ENSO is the fluctuation of oceanic and atmospheric temperature in two phases: El Nino and La Nina, causing major impacts on weather patterns around the globe.

In Vietnam, the most obvious manifestation of ENSO are less rainfall during El Niño and more rainfall during La Niña.

Droughts, floods and salinity intrusion have caused severe damage to the coastal areas of the central region, Central Highlands and Mekong river basin. 

In the El Nino in 2014-2016, for example, agricultural production, fisheries and aquaculture incurred losses of $3.6 million.

A study from the World Bank found that a strong spell of El Nino may cause near-poor households to return to poverty, increasing the number of poor households by 2 percent, or 1.7 million people. 

This leads to increased food insecurity, malnutrition and reduced consumption. In addition, women are particularly vulnerable to El Nino because it plays a central role in Vietnamese agriculture. 

The study also found that the loss of 1.5 percent of GDP is equivalent to a loss of $2.5 billion in added value. A strong El Nino will reduce GDP, while a strong La Nina will increase GDP, but the increase is not enough to compensate for El Nino's previous losses.

It is estimated that the GDP loss during an El Nino period is $2.5 billion, while a La Nina can increase GDP by 1.1 percent. The World Bank has recommended that Vietnam work on rehabilitation solutions during La Niña.

William R.Sutton, an agricultural expert from the World Bank, said that Vietnam’s agriculture would suffer the most.

The northern midland and lower Mekong areas are the biggest losers during El Niño, while the Central Highlands produces the largest increase during El Niño. The central region sees the output increase most sharply during La Nina period.

By the end of March 2016, when the latest El Nino spell nearly went to an end, the domestic fish output decreased by 2.6 percent compared with the year before. 

Scientists also estimate that El Nino led to the 2.6 percent reduction in fishery output.

There is no evidence that shows La Nina causes the reduction in fishery output, but it affects animal health because of weather changes.

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