The draft documents submitted to the 14th Party Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam set forth highly ambitious economic goals. Among them is an average GDP growth target of 10% per year during the 2026–2030 period, and a projected per capita GDP of around USD 8,500 by 2030.

Breakthroughs are essential to achieve the targets

In an interview with VietNamNet, Dr. Tran Quang Thang - Director of the HCM City Institute for Economics and Management - called these goals aspirational, yet attainable. He emphasized that Vietnam must make real breakthroughs in institutional reform, economic models, and productivity. Simply continuing with traditional approaches will no longer work.

Dr. Thang acknowledged the 13th Party Congress took place during an unprecedentedly challenging period. The COVID-19 pandemic dealt a major blow to global economies, driving down growth and pushing up inflation, while intensifying strategic competition among major powers. Meanwhile, natural disasters and climate change became increasingly complex.

Against that backdrop, Vietnam’s ability to maintain socio-economic stability and achieve key outcomes is commendable.

The country's economic growth remained relatively strong compared to the global average. Progress was made in three strategic areas: institutional reform, infrastructure, and human resources. In addition, Vietnam made strides in resource management, environmental protection, and climate change adaptation - affirming its commitment to sustainable development.

In the cultural and social spheres, culture has increasingly been affirmed as both a spiritual foundation and a driving force for development. Many provinces and cities have launched more methodical cultural development programs.

Still, the draft documents openly acknowledge several limitations: some socio-economic indicators remain below expectations; labor productivity and growth quality are still modest; institutional and administrative reforms are uneven; and challenges persist in education, healthcare, and social welfare.

Dr. Thang believes this candid self-assessment is necessary to properly identify development targets, directions, and solutions for the coming phase.

Ambitious, strategic economic goals

Among the draft’s proposed targets are: an average GDP growth rate of at least 10% per year between 2026 and 2030; GDP per capita reaching approximately USD 8,500 by 2030; the manufacturing and processing industry accounting for about 28% of GDP; the digital economy making up around 30% of GDP; total factor productivity (TFP) contributing over 55% to economic growth; labor productivity increasing by around 8.5% annually; energy consumption per unit of GDP decreasing by 1–1.5% per year; and an urbanization rate exceeding 50%.

Dr. Thang noted that these goals are closely tied to structural economic transformation, digitalization, the green economy, and productivity enhancement.

While the 10% GDP growth and USD 8,500 per capita income targets are highly ambitious, he believes they are grounded in strategic direction. From 2021 to 2025, Vietnam’s average annual growth was estimated at 6.3%. In 2025, growth was projected to exceed 8% - the highest in years.

Yet sustaining 10% annual growth for five consecutive years is a major challenge. Over the past 30 years, Vietnam has only seen double-digit growth in a few years during the early Doi Moi (renewal) period.

This indicates that meeting such targets requires a departure from traditional growth models. Growth must be driven by higher productivity, innovation in economic structures, accelerated digital transformation, and the development of high-value-added industries.

The goal of having TFP contribute over 55% to growth and achieving an 8.5% annual rise in labor productivity reflects the magnitude of the required reforms.

As for the income target of USD 8,500 per capita by 2030 - up from around USD 5,000 in 2025 - this would require a sustained increase of 11–12% annually over five years. This is only feasible if GDP grows strongly, inflation remains under control, and the economic structure shifts decisively toward high-value-added manufacturing and services.

In short, the target is directionally sound - but demands a major improvement in growth quality over past periods.

Real estate and resource extraction won’t sustain 10% growth

When asked about key actions needed to realize these goals, Dr. Thang said the draft’s economic targets are visionary and strategic, aligned with Vietnam’s goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2030.

However, delivering on these goals will require deep institutional reforms, greater labor productivity, and improved growth quality. Vietnam must aggressively develop its processing and manufacturing industries, expand the digital economy, and leverage green and digital transitions while deepening global integration.

The first key factor, he emphasized, is genuine institutional breakthrough. Policies must be stable, transparent, and predictable so businesses can invest with long-term confidence.

Second, Vietnam’s economy must be restructured toward modern industrialization, with manufacturing as the main engine of growth.

"We cannot expect to grow at 10% annually if we continue to rely on real estate or resource exploitation," he said.

Thus, improving labor productivity is crucial. This requires a major overhaul of vocational education, workforce reskilling, and incentives for businesses to invest in automation and digitization.

The digital economy must be explicitly defined as a primary driver of growth, capable of raising productivity and generating new value. This goes hand-in-hand with green transition efforts, clean energy development, smart urbanization, and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

The four strategic resolutions: A roadmap for transformation

Recently, the Politburo and National Assembly issued a suite of key policy frameworks to support Vietnam’s sustainable development in the new era, including four strategic resolutions: Nos. 57, 59, 66, and 68.

Dr. Thang sees these not just as guidelines, but as a strategic policy ecosystem shaping a new model of growth - one rooted in productivity, technology, integration, and a dynamic private sector.

Resolution 57 has been hailed as a “compass for development in the new era” and a decisive factor in helping Vietnam avoid falling behind. Coupled with Resolution 68 on private-sector development, the country now has a chance to build “Make in Vietnam” digital tech giants and embed itself deeper into global value chains.

Resolution 66 on legal reform reduces institutional risk, improves transparency, and boosts investor confidence. This is a precondition for achieving the high growth targets set out in the 14th Party Congress documents.

Meanwhile, Resolution 59 on global integration will help Vietnam better participate in global supply chains, capitalize on next-generation FTAs, and raise its international standing.

These four resolutions form a strategic foundation - similar to the development playbook used by many East Asian nations to accelerate their transformation. In short, they provide the strategic groundwork for Vietnam to enter a phase of rapid, sustainable, and modern growth.

The 14th Party Congress is of special strategic importance. It will not only mark the culmination of 40 years of Doi Moi, but more importantly, chart the course for Vietnam’s development in the decades to come - aligning directly with the country’s two centennial goals.

This is more than just a routine congress - it marks the beginning of a new era, one in which Vietnam must shift decisively from extensive growth to a model centered on quality, productivity, and innovation.

The success of the 14th Party Congress, and the realization of the decisions it enshrines, will be pivotal to whether Vietnam can achieve its goal of becoming a developed, high-income nation by 2045.

Ngan Anh