SJC gold bars and plain rings are under significant pressure as global gold prices stall below USD 4,200 and the USD/VND exchange rate stabilizes. Analysts suggest one more leg down could be coming.

Global gold under selling pressure

In recent trading sessions, the global gold market has faced strong selling pressure. From a peak of USD 4,260/ounce on December 5, spot gold plummeted to as low as USD 4,180 before settling at USD 4,195 on the Asian market by 9 AM, December 9.

The pressure stems from market uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 10. Despite a high probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, investors are bracing for hawkish rhetoric due to lingering inflation concerns.

The probability of a rate cut is as high as 90%, according to market data. However, expectations for tough Fed language have surged, particularly after the delayed release of U.S. producer inflation data for October and November until January 2026. This has heightened uncertainty and driven selling in both gold and silver.

Other external factors include a mild rise in the USD Index, weakening crude oil prices (WTI below USD 59/barrel), and a 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovering around 4.15%.

The World Bank reports that China’s central bank made its 13th consecutive net gold purchase in November, adding 30,000 troy ounces (nearly 1 ton), bringing total reserves to 74.12 million troy ounces (approximately 2,380 tons). Still, this buying hasn’t been enough to counteract the selling pressure from U.S. markets.

Domestic gold tracks global trend

In Vietnam, local gold prices are also declining. SJC gold bars dropped by over VND 1 million per tael from last weekend, with buy prices at VND 152.2 million and sell prices at VND 154.2 million per tael (approx. USD 6,208 and USD 6,292 respectively).

Plain gold rings traded between VND 150-153 million/tael (USD 6,122–6,245).

Meanwhile, the USD/VND exchange rate on the free market has cooled significantly - from a peak near VND 28,000/USD in October to around VND 27,150/USD now. The gap between official bank and market exchange rates has narrowed from VND 1,500 to about VND 800, stabilizing the domestic market but reducing gold’s appeal as a safe haven.

Forecast: Rebound likely in second half of 2026

While currently in correction mode, gold could face another drop before rebounding strongly from mid-2026. Experts cite macro conditions as lacking clear breakout signals.

Despite expectations of Fed rate cuts, U.S. core inflation remains persistent. With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) still elevated, the Fed is unlikely to ease aggressively. A strong dollar and high bond yields are putting natural pressure on gold.

The DXY index also remains above key support levels, suggesting capital hasn’t shifted away from USD. As long as the dollar stays strong, gold’s sustained uptrend remains unlikely.

Technically, gold is in a correction phase. Charts show failed attempts to break through institutional resistance, with high volume at peaks and low volume during rebounds - a sign of insufficient accumulation. Market psychology also appears overly bullish, prompting large players to potentially "flush" prices to re-accumulate at better levels.

History shows asset prices often rise significantly after retail investors lose patience.

Long-term outlook still bullish

Long-term fundamentals still support a bullish gold scenario. According to Heraeus’ Outlook 2026 report, gold could reach USD 5,000/ounce after early-year consolidation, backed by central bank purchases, budget deficit concerns, and strong investment demand.

Silver could also hit USD 62/ounce, despite lower demand in some sectors.

Heraeus highlights that 43% of global central banks plan to increase gold reserves. Jewelry demand may also recover if prices fall. If post-budget U.S. inflation overshoots, real interest rates may turn negative - a key gold driver.

Edward Dowd, former BlackRock portfolio manager, goes further, predicting gold could soar to USD 10,000/ounce thanks to Basel III’s reclassification of gold as a Tier 1 asset and aggressive Chinese accumulation amid global debt bubbles. A potential U.S. recession in 2026 could further prompt Fed rate cuts, lowering real rates and boosting gold.

In summary, the current dip is viewed as a "necessary setback" for market consolidation. The long-term trend remains upward, supported by solid fundamentals.

Manh Ha