However, a cooling US dollar in the domestic market has not been able to curb the rally in gold prices.

In the first trading session of the new week on December 15, the USD/VND exchange rate continued to ease. The selling price of the US dollar on the free market dropped by another VND20 compared with the previous weekend, to VND27,180 per dollar, while the buying price stood at VND27,100 per dollar.

As a result, the USD price on the black market has fallen sharply from above VND27,500 per dollar (selling price) in early December and is much lower than the VND27,700–28,000 per dollar range seen during most of November.

By the end of the afternoon on December 15, the USD price on the free market was up only about 5.2 percent compared with the end of last year, down from nearly 8 percent in late November.

Within the banking system, the USD/VND exchange rate rose about 3.3 percent from the beginning of the year. As of December 15, Vietcombank listed the USD buying and selling prices at VND26,091 and VND26,401 per dollar, respectively, down another VND4 from the previous weekend and maintaining a downward trend since early December.

The rapid cooling of the USD/VND exchange rate came as the US dollar also weakened significantly on international markets in recent sessions, after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year by an additional 0.25 percentage points and ended its quantitative tightening program.

At its meeting on December 10, the Fed announced it would begin purchasing short-term bonds, thereby expanding its balance sheet and easing pressure on the interbank market. 

Specifically, the central bank will start buying $40 billion in Treasury bills from December 12. The Fed said it expects to “maintain a high level of purchases for several months” before being able to scale back significantly.

By 4:50 pm on December 15, the DXY index had fallen to 98.3 points, well below the level above 100 points seen in late November.

The easing of the USD/VND exchange rate is also driven by unexpected developments in the domestic financial market, where interest rates have risen sharply across many segments. On the interbank market, overnight lending rates recently surged to a record high above 7 percent per year. Deposit rates at banks have also increased strongly.

As year-end approaches, the upward trend in deposit rates has spread across most commercial banks. State-owned commercial banks have also joined the race to raise interest rates, including BIDV and VietinBank.

On December 15, some banks raised savings interest rates to as high as 8.3 percent per year, applied to 12-month deposit with deposits of just from VND100 million. Many banks have rolled out special interest-rate packages in the 7–8 percent per year range.

Gold prices continue to climb

The sharp drop in the USD/VND exchange rate over the past two weeks has had a significant impact on the prices of many domestic commodities, including gold. 

However, in reality, the price of SJC gold bars, SJC gold rings, and gold rings of several famous brands such as Doji, Bao Tin Minh Chau, Bao Tin Manh Hai, and Mi Hong increased quite strongly.

On the afternoon of December 15, SJC gold bars increased by an additional VND900,000/tael compared to the end of last week, reaching a new historical peak: VND155.2 million/tael (buy) and VND157.2 million/tael (sell).

The price of SJC gold rings increased by an additional VND500,000 to a new high: VND151.6 million/tael (buy) and VND154.4 million/tael (sell). Bao Tin Minh Chau and Bao Tin Manh Hai gold rings increased by an additional VND500,000 to VND152.8 million/tael (buy) and VND155.8 million/tael (sell), closely approaching the old historical peak of VND159.5 million/tael (sell) recorded on October 17.

The domestic gold bar and gold ring prices increased despite the decrease in the USD/VND exchange rate because the world gold price rose at a faster pace.

By the afternoon of December 15, the spot gold price in the international market at one point reached nearly $4,350/ounce, only slightly lower than the historical peak of $4,381/ounce recorded on October 17. Over the past week, the spot gold price has increased by about $160, equivalent to an increase of about 3.8 percent.

However, the gold price is forecasted to have little room left for explosive growth next year.

Although factors supporting gold's breakout still exist, gold has already increased by 65 percent in 2025 and 27 percent in 2024.

Tuan Nguyen