This assessment was shared by Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice Chair and Secretary General of the Vietnam Banking Association, at the recently held Vietnam Economic Forum – Prospects 2026 (VEPF).

Systemic pressures and international standards

According to Hung, although credit institutions have made significant efforts to supply capital to the economy in recent years, continued over-dependence on bank loans will heighten liquidity risks. This is particularly evident during seasonal peaks, increasing the strain on the financial system's stability.

Interest rates are currently trending upward, directly impacting production, business operations, and investment costs for enterprises. As banks transition toward higher safety standards, such as Basel III, the challenge of balancing resources to support economic growth while meeting international regulatory requirements is becoming increasingly formidable.

“This issue must be addressed in policy planning for resource mobilization and allocation, especially as the banking sector, the economy's primary capital channel, undergoes significant adjustments to align with international standards,” Hung stated.

The role of "seed capital"

Hung proposed strengthening the synergy and complementary relationship between state budget capital (via public investment) and bank credit.

“State budget capital should function as ‘seed capital,’ working alongside bank credit to support enterprises. This coordination will help achieve high, sustainable growth goals while maintaining macroeconomic stability. Effective alignment between these two sources will maximize the utility of both budgetary and credit resources," he added.

Conversely, if capital flows remain overly concentrated in volatile sectors such as real estate, tourism services, or brokerage activities, the consequences could be severe. While the economy might achieve short-term gains, such growth would be unsustainable and pose significant threats to financial stability.

Shifting towards the bond market

In this context, mobilizing capital through the bond market is seen as a vital long-term objective for sustainable development. Do Ngoc Quynh, Secretary General of the Vietnam Bond Market Association, noted that the market has expanded rapidly over the past decade.

Since 2009, both government and corporate bond markets have grown significantly in scale compared to regional peers. Liquidity has improved markedly, and the government’s cost of capital mobilization has remained low. However, Quynh emphasized that the core issue is not a scarcity of capital, but rather the capacity to utilize it efficiently.

“Capital in the economy is not necessarily in short supply. What we lack are truly viable, high-quality projects and robust enterprises. Therefore, the key for businesses lies in establishing transparent information disclosure mechanisms and a rigorous supervision system to ensure fair market operations. This is the essential foundation for a natural market screening mechanism,” Quynh concluded.

Tuan Nguyen