The number of storms and tropical depressions forming over the East Sea in the remaining months of the year is forecast to be below the long-term average, at around four to six. Of these, about one to three could directly affect Vietnam’s mainland.

Hot weather, however, is expected to remain complicated. In September, areas from Thanh Hoa to Hue and the south-central coast are likely to experience prolonged heat, with more hot days than both the long-term average and the same period last year.

Although widespread moderate to heavy rain could continue through October, rainfall is forecast to decline rapidly from November.

“The greatest concern is the central region, where rainfall could fall significantly below normal even during the peak rainy season in October and November. This would put considerable pressure on water supplies for the winter-spring and summer-autumn crops, industrial crops, reservoir storage and power generation,” experts warned.

El Nino is also expected to weaken both the frequency and intensity of cold-air outbreaks. Severe and damaging cold spells are forecast to arrive later, while the number of cold days could decline substantially compared with the long-term average.

As a result, Vietnam is likely to experience a warmer-than-normal winter.

Southern rainy season could end up to 20 days early

The Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center said the current El Nino has approached the record intensity seen during the 2015-2016 period and could potentially surpass it.

El Nino is forecast to peak between September and November 2026 before gradually weakening from December, though it is expected to remain very strong into early next year.

Forecaster Le Manh Dung said temperatures in southern Vietnam are expected to be 0.5-1.3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average between September and November. Ca Mau, Dong Thap, northern parts of the southeastern region and Lam Dong are expected to see some of the most pronounced temperature anomalies.

Over the next three months, rainfall across the south is forecast to be 5-20% below the long-term average, with the largest shortfall expected in October. Tay Ninh and Ca Mau are forecast to be among the most severely affected areas.

Most notably, meteorological authorities said this year’s rainy season in southern Vietnam could end 10-20 days earlier than usual, potentially between the first and middle weeks of November.

Local authorities and residents have been advised to begin storing water early, manage water supplies carefully and consider appropriate crop adjustments to prepare for drought and saltwater intrusion.

Bao Anh