On the international market, gold rose about $66 an ounce at the start of the week to $4,671 an ounce. Using Vietcombank's selling exchange rate of VND26,310 per dollar, excluding taxes and fees, the global gold price was equivalent to about VND148.2 million per tael.

At the close of trading on August 24, SJC quoted gold bars at VND147-150 million per tael, buying and selling respectively, up VND2.4 million per tael from the start of trading on August 22. SJC's buying price was about VND1.2 million per tael below the global price, while its selling price was about VND1.8 million higher.

SJC gold rings weighing one to five maces were priced at VND146.5-149.5 million per tael, about VND1.7 million below the global price (buying) and VND1.3 million above it (selling).

Nguyen Tuan Anh of RMIT University Vietnam said the phenomenon of domestic gold prices falling below global prices is now relatively rare compared with the past, but can be explained through the lens of supply and demand as well as macroeconomic regulation.

Anh said the authorities have been taking strong measures to stabilize the gold market. Direct gold sales through the state-owned Big Four commercial banks and SJC have created a firm price anchor, curbing excessive price increases in line with global markets and limiting the risk of speculative bubbles.

Regarding demand, domestic buying has weakened as the opportunity cost has increased. According to the RMIT expert, attractive savings rates, combined with cautious sentiment, particularly during the seventh lunar month, have encouraged investors to favor safer channels.

Meanwhile, global gold prices have surged past the $4,500-4,600-an-ounce range amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing. The rapid rise in global prices, while domestic prices have been anchored by market-management policies, has created the current gap.

“Looking around the world, domestic gold prices falling below international prices is not unfamiliar in countries with strong gold demand. According to World Gold Council (WGC), in populous markets such as India and China, when global gold prices surge but domestic demand for physical gold weakens, dealers may sell below international prices by tens of dollars an ounce to recover capital and stimulate transactions,” Anh said.

Financial and banking expert Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu noted that the gap between domestic and global gold prices had once reached a record of nearly VND30 million per tael but has now narrowed to VND3-5 million. 

Market sentiment has cooled following a deep correction from the peak, reducing the fear of missing out (FOMO). At the same time, increased inspections of major gold businesses by regulators have helped improve transparency and curb speculation and price manipulation.

Tran Duy Phuong, director of Golden Fund, said gold prices had declined for more than six months, leaving many people who bought at the peak with heavy losses. As prices remain in a state of uncertainty, investors have become more hesitant and cautious. 

Upward trend taking shape

Although domestic gold prices have been hovering around VND145 million per tael, Hieu believes international macroeconomic factors continue to provide strong support for precious metals.

First, tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved as efforts to negotiate peace and reopen the Strait of Hormuz face obstacles, raising the risk of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran. 

Continued security instability remains a major support for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the US midterm elections later this year could bring uncertainty over economic policy and fluctuations in the US dollar.

According to Hieu, if global gold prices maintain their upward momentum, the domestic market is unlikely to remain outside the trend and could rise toward VND160 million per tael.

Anh said that assessing gold's appeal in the final months of the year requires distinguishing between global macroeconomic drivers and domestic policy risks.

According to the RMIT expert, gold has become significantly less attractive for speculative and short-term trading in Vietnam. Regulators may intervene in the market when prices experience localized surges in order to curb the use of gold as a store of value and narrow the gap with global prices.

In international markets, big-data analytical models and market sentiment indicators show that global investment funds continue to allocate money to precious metals as a hedge against geopolitical risks and to position themselves for a potential de-dollarization trend, Anh said.

Thu Ha