The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam has drawn a firm line in the sand: the country will aim for an average GDP growth rate of 10% or higher between 2026 and 2030. This is not a lone figure  -  it’s part of a sweeping vision for scale and quality, from income and industrial structure to digital economy and labor productivity.

As General Secretary To Lam emphasized in his essay “Onward! Victory shall be ours!”, the coming years are critical in deciding whether Vietnam can meet its 2030 goal of becoming a modern industrialized, high middle-income nation  -  and lay the foundation for the 2045 aspiration: a fully developed, high-income Vietnam.

“This requires the economy to sustain a growth rate of 10% per year, or more, over many years  -  a breakthrough pace we’ve never seen before,” he wrote. “But this goal is entirely achievable, if we harness all available resources to the fullest.”

Crucially, the 14th Congress doesn’t just raise the bar  -  it defines a new growth model. The vision rests on productivity, quality, efficiency and value-added output. Science, technology, innovation and digital transformation are named as the main engines. Market forces are positioned at the heart of resource allocation. State management is to shift decisively from pre-approval to post-check mechanisms.

In short, the 10% goal is embedded in a carefully engineered development blueprint.

Yet from ambition to execution lies an immense resource challenge. Preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Finance submitted to the Central Policy and Strategy Committee in mid-2025 show that achieving double-digit growth will demand a simultaneous surge in both total demand and investment.

On the demand side, growth will increasingly rely on consumption and asset accumulation. According to the projections, final consumption must grow by 9.8–12.4% annually through 2030. Capital formation will need to expand by 9.1–12.1% per year. Meanwhile, net exports will have to sustain average annual growth above 17%  -  in a world of fragile trade flows.

On the investment front, the scale is staggering. To push GDP growth up by 2.5–4 percentage points above current levels  -  assuming no sudden gains in productivity  -  total social investment must rise from around 32% of GDP to a peak of 41.5% by 2030. In dollar terms, the capital needed between 2025 and 2030 is approximately $1.77 trillion  -  or $260–300 billion per year.

More critically, it’s about where that money comes from. The public sector is expected to provide $457–528 billion. Foreign direct investment may supply $239–271 billion. But the domestic private sector is tasked with the lion’s share: $876–975 billion, or about $146–162 billion per year.

If public investment only meets 75% of requirements, GDP growth could drop by 1.6 to nearly 4 percentage points, according to the Ministry of Finance.

These numbers underscore just how vital private sector mobilization is to the 10% target.

Double-digit growth will also depend heavily on Vietnam’s leading economic hubs. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are each tasked with maintaining annual growth of 10.6–10.7% during 2026–2030. Coastal provinces like Thanh Hoa, Da Nang and Khanh Hoa must grow even faster  -  above 12–13% per year.

The digital economy is expected to become a new growth engine. But the gap is wide: it currently contributes just over 14% of GDP, according to the General Statistics Office, while the 2030 target is 30%.

Bridging that gap means confronting some hard truths. Digital growth hinges on real institutional reform, an open business environment, and the domestic private sector’s capacity to absorb innovation. Science, technology and innovation are not optional  -  they are mandatory if Vietnam hopes to lift productivity fast enough to meet its goal.

From a more cautious perspective, economist Nguyen Dinh Cung, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, noted that while Vietnam has seen impressive growth in recent years, it has mostly come from expanded investment and credit.

With credit-to-GDP ratios already high and capital efficiency stagnant, this model is hitting its limits and raising macroeconomic risks. Asset prices  -  especially real estate  -  have surged. Housing access for young people is increasingly out of reach. The foreign-invested sector continues to dominate exports. Domestic firms are still struggling. All these signal growing structural strain in the domestic economy.

Cung argued that Vietnam must fundamentally rethink how it generates growth. The old model of credit expansion and investment-driven stimulus no longer holds. Sustainable growth will only come from better capital efficiency and a decisive pivot toward productivity and innovation  -  not just bigger inputs. That means deeper institutional reform, reduced administrative interference, more policy stability and predictability, and stronger protections for property rights and business freedom  -  to enable long-term private investment.

In that context, economist Pham Chi Lan believes the 10% target is both a necessary aspiration and a tough test of institutional capability. The real challenge isn’t the number  -  it’s the quality of growth behind it. If high growth comes mainly through debt-fueled investment, without matching improvements in governance and execution, the long-term risks could be significant.

At the strategic level, the Party and Government have made their stance clear: macroeconomic stability will not be sacrificed for growth at any cost. Nor can Vietnam hit 10% growth by clinging to outdated models based on resource extraction, capital expansion or cheap labor  -  all of which are reaching their limits.

To move faster without paying a steep price, growth must now come from productivity, innovation and a skilled workforce.

In this pivotal phase, the real question is no longer whether Vietnam should aim for 10%  -  but whether it has the courage to grow differently.

As General Secretary To Lam warned once more: “If we miss the timing, or allow delays or mistakes at this pivotal stage, the price will be high  -  possibly costing the nation its opportunity and pushing us further behind in a fast-moving world. Understanding this, our entire Party and people are committed to acting with speed and determination from day one  -  not wasting a single day, not delaying a single week.”

Tu Giang