Amid mounting global uncertainties, Vietnam has emerged as a rare bright spot in Asia’s growth landscape. Experts say the years ahead present a golden window - one that could help Vietnam surge ahead if it chooses to focus on strengthening its core economic foundations.

From porridge bowls to million-dollar dreams in the US

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Vietnam aims for at least 10% GDP growth in 2026, with per capita GDP reaching $5,400–$5,500 – Photo: Hong Khanh

A thriving domestic year in 2025 set the stage for Nguyen Thi Thu, Chairwoman of Anh Kim Food JSC (owner of the Chao Cay Thi brand), to push for international expansion.

Entering 2026, her company is targeting major export markets including the U.S., Russia, and China. After extensive consumer testing, Thu sees strong potential - projecting that exports to the U.S. alone could bring in $1 million.

“The hardest part is crafting a kind of porridge that appeals to American and European palates - because Asian-style porridge isn’t something they typically eat,” she explained. Previously, the brand had already reached customers in Australia and Cambodia.

Her company’s export ambitions represent just one chapter in Vietnam’s larger 2025 economic narrative - an eventful year shaped by external shocks and internal resilience. Back in April, Vietnam was listed among the most heavily impacted economies in Asia (second only to China) due to U.S. tariff risks.

And yet, Vietnam defied expectations. The country recorded GDP growth of more than 8% for the year, proving its economic resilience and dynamism.

According to HSBC’s latest report, Vietnam’s 2025 growth rate marked its second-highest in the past 15 years - putting it at the top of ASEAN and even the broader Asia region.

Despite ongoing global trade tensions and tariff pressures, Vietnam’s total trade volume reached a record $928 billion in 2025, up 18% year-on-year.

One standout example: Nghia Son Furniture Co., Ltd. in Dong Nai. The company’s 2025 export sales surged 40%, with over 1,000 containers shipped abroad - many destined for the U.S. Demand is now booked through May 2026.

Vietnam has also expanded its market share in the U.S., especially in electronics, textiles, and footwear. According to HSBC data, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. jumped nearly 30% in 2025 despite trade headwinds.

A notable shift in Vietnam’s export structure is underway. Electronics now account for 35% of total exports, up from just 5% in 2010. Meanwhile, textiles and footwear - once dominant - have declined from a peak of 30% in 2005 to just over 10% today. The numbers reflect Vietnam’s growing role in higher-value segments of the global supply chain.

Turning tailwinds into long-term strength

In November 2025, Vietnam’s National Assembly approved sweeping socio-economic targets for 2026, including a minimum GDP growth goal of 10% and a projected per capita GDP of $5,400–$5,500.

HSBC analysts noted that reaching a double-digit growth rate would require not just continued strength in trade, investment, and consumption, but a strategic leap in policy execution and domestic capacity.

So what must Vietnam do next?

“We need to harness these tailwinds to upgrade our internal capabilities,” said Dr. Chu Thanh Tuan, Deputy Head of Business Studies at RMIT Vietnam.

He cited global supply chain shifts - driven by multinational efforts to diversify away from China - as Vietnam’s biggest opportunity. With low labor costs, strategic geography, and a broad network of free trade agreements, Vietnam is well-positioned to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI).

As global giants look to deploy overseas capital, Vietnam has an opening to secure new projects in manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, and even high-tech research and development.

Dr. Tuan emphasized that this momentum must be channeled into long-term national capacity. Export earnings and FDI inflows should be prioritized for infrastructure, education, healthcare, digital transformation, and workforce upskilling - rather than speculative ventures with short-term payoffs.

The goal is to boost productivity, upgrade technology, and enhance the economy’s resilience when global conditions shift.

At the same time, Vietnam must maintain fiscal discipline and safeguard its banking system. Unlike major economies with greater capacity to issue debt in their own currency, Vietnam has limited space for risky monetary experiments. Chasing easy money could carry long-term consequences.

Finally, diversification is key. Reducing reliance on a few markets or product lines - and encouraging domestic firms to move into higher-value roles like design, marketing, and after-sales services - will help Vietnam retain more value and better absorb external shocks.

“The world is entering a phase of risk-taking in pursuit of growth. Vietnam has a chance to go faster - but only sustainably if we use these tailwinds to build stronger foundations, not just ride short-term waves,” Dr. Tuan concluded.

Tran Chung