return icon

Harvard study names Vietnam among fastest-growing economies by 2030

Vietnam, together with China, Indonesia, Uganda, and India, are set to be among the fastest growing economies in the world by 2030, according to researchers at the Growth Lab of Harvard University.

harvard study names vietnam among fastest-growing economies by 2030 picture 1

Vietnam has jumped 18 notches in the ECI rankings from 2010 to 2020. (Photo credit: the Atlas of Economic Complexity)

Presenting the latest growth projections at the Atlas of Economic Complexity, researchers on July 27 noted that long-term growth is anticipated to take off in Asia, Eastern Europe, and East Africa once the negative impact of the pandemic subsides.

China is expected to represent the fastest growing economy per capita, despite its slowing growth over the past decade. Indeed, countries such as Vietnam and China which have diversified their production into more complex sectors are most likely to experience the fastest growth over the course of the coming decade.

These predictions were set out by Growth Lab researchers after they released new country rankings of the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), which assesses and highlights the diversity and sophistication of the productive capabilities embedded in the exports of each country.

Japan tops the rankings, followed by Switzerland, Germany, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, and Italy.

Among the economies which have made the greatest strides in improving their complexity are Vietnam in 52nd place, Cambodia in 72nd place, Laos in 89th place, and Ethiopia in 97th place.

The Vietnamese economy jumped a total of 12 notches in the 2015 to 2020 period and 18 notches in the 2010 to 2020 period, boasting an average ECI score of 0.18 points.

The researchers all agreed that Asia, East Africa, and Eastern Europe would be three growth poles in the world by 2030. In Asia, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, India, and Malaysia stand out as the countries that could potentially record the fastest growth over the coming decade.

Elsewhere, Uganda, Tanzania, and Mozambique are among those in East Africa which are expected to experience rapid growth, though this is likely to be driven more by population growth than gains in economic complexity.

Eastern Europe boasts strong growth potential due to its continued advances in economic complexity, with Georgia, Lithuania, Belarus, Armenia, Latvia, Bosnia, Romania, and Albania all ranking in the projected top 15 economies on a per capita basis. 

According to Prof. Ricardo Hausmann, director of the Growth Lab, the COVID-19 pandemic marks the first time that the service industry has become an important part of global trade.

Economies such as Jamaica and Kenya which rely heavily on service exports, especially tourism, have suffered heavy losses in their export earnings since the pandemic initially hit. Meanwhile, countries that are able to diversify their export structure like Thailand can flexibly switch production between different industries as a mean of limiting damage to the economy.


EuroCham Chairman praises strong and forward-looking government

Vietnam’s recovery has been ensured by strong and forward-looking government support which helped to bring in more high-profile FDI projects

Many firms suspend raising capital from stock market

Many enterprises have either stopped mobilizing capital or changed their capital-raising plans on the stock market amid existing uncertainties and disadvantages.

HCM City runs out of Covid-19 vaccines

HCM City has run out of Covid-19 vaccines over the past 10 days, said Nguyen Hong Tam, the deputy director of the municipal Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.


Chinese police hand over wanted man to Lao Cai authorities

Foreign-invested enterprises face up to procedural barriers

Administrative procedures such as a prolonged timeline for obtaining business licences, as well as overlaps in the legal framework, are continuing to affect the expansion plans of many foreign-invested enterprises in Vietnam. Vietnam among ten attractive destinations to escape Europe’s winter

With its year-round warm tropical climate, breathtakingly beautiful scenery, and exciting culture, Vietnam is gradually becoming an attractive destination for German tourists.


Real estate sector faces debt default risk

Shan Tuyet tea, valuable timber plants named ‘Vietnam Heritage Trees’

More than 1,300 Shan Tuyet tea plants in Ha Giang province and a group of valuable timber trees in Dak Nong province have been recognised as “Vietnam Heritage Trees”.

Fast fashion brands scale up for growth

Surviving and developing in a competitive fast fashion market remains a challenge for many brands, especially for newcomers.

Arguments arise as properties required to be traded on exchange

Controversy has arisen over the Ministry of Construction’s draft of the amended law on real estate trading as it requires real estate products to be traded on an official exchange.

Boeing accelerates cooperation with Vietnamese suppliers

Boeing, the world’s leading aerospace company based in the US, are accelerating cooperation with Vietnamese suppliers and universities to provide a foundation for long-term industrial growth.

Expecting coffee exports to hit a record $4 billion

Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (Vicofa) forecasted that if the export price of coffee remained at a high level, as in the first half of the year

Major investors worry as stock market weakens

The stock market boards have been covered with red amid investors’ rising caution. There are few buyers, while selling pressure still exists. Foreign investors’ behavior has affected the market.

Vietnam sees great potential in ASEAN halal market

Despite opportunities available in the ASEAN halal food market, Vietnamese exporters have to date exported only a small amount of halal products to some countries in the region.

Vietnam is becoming a beacon in the region: The Brussels Times

The Brussels Times of Belgium has run an article highlighting that Vietnam is becoming a beacon in the region with the capacity to control inflation and maintain economic growth at a high level despite turbulent international affairs.