HCM City posted encouraging economic growth in the first eight months of 2026, but businesses remain under pressure as the number of firms leaving the market rises sharply.
After the first eight months of 2026, HCMC’s economy recorded a range of positive growth indicators, but the business sector remains under considerable pressure as the number of companies leaving the market has risen sharply.
Nguyen Khac Hoang, head of HCMC Statistics, said the ratio between businesses entering and leaving the market in HCMC currently stands at around 10 to 8. In other words, for every 10 businesses entering the market, eight withdraw, compared with a nationwide ratio of around 10 to 6.
Hoang said the figures show that the “health” of businesses remains an issue requiring close attention. “HCMC used to maintain a higher growth rate than the national average, but it is now lower,” he said.
HCMC People’s Committee Chairman Nguyen Van Duoc chairs the city’s August socio-economic meeting to discuss tasks for September. Photo: TD
Addressing the situation, Pham Binh An, deputy director of the HCMC Institute for Development Studies, said the difficulties are not concentrated among large companies but rather among small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those that are “at the very bottom.”
According to a survey by the institute, businesses are facing a range of challenges, including a shortage of new orders, weakening consumer demand and rising logistics costs. Access to capital remains tight, while interest rates, despite calls for reductions, are still high relative to what small businesses can afford. Their ability to adapt to digital and green transformation requirements also remains limited.
Notably, the number of businesses completing dissolution procedures increased by around 160% year on year. The increase was attributed to a campaign by authorities to clean up tax identification records, requiring many businesses that had ceased operations years ago without completing the necessary procedures to formally dissolve.
“When the data is cleaned up, businesses that have already stopped operating but have not completed dissolution procedures are now identified as temporarily suspended,” An said.
The HCMC Institute for Development Studies said the increase in business dissolutions in this context is largely technical rather than a reflection of any substantive weakening of the business sector. The development does not affect the city’s double-digit growth target.
Nevertheless, the institute proposed reviewing relevant processes and procedures, including the handling of business license tax penalties accumulated over many years, to reduce costs and shorten the time required for companies seeking to exit the market.
Bright spots emerge, but new growth drivers remain unclear
At the meeting, HCMC People’s Committee Chairman Nguyen Van Duoc asked departments and agencies to continue reviewing and assessing the performance of businesses, the private sector and foreign investment, as well as public investment disbursement and budget revenue. He also called for growth forecasts for the third and fourth quarters to help formulate measures for the city’s management and policymaking.
An aerial view of Cai Mep Ha Port in HCMC. Photo: Nguyen Hue
According to Nguyen Khac Hoang, HCMC’s current growth momentum still relies largely on its existing foundations, while new drivers capable of giving the economy a stronger boost have yet to emerge clearly.
From the beginning of the year through Aug. 20, HCMC recorded 38,253 newly established businesses with total registered capital of approximately $9.9 billion, up 7.9% and 20.7%, respectively, from the same period last year. By Aug. 31, the city had attracted more than $10 billion in foreign direct investment, up 167.3%. Average FDI per project reached around $2.7 million, a sharp increase from $1.4 million in the first six months of the year.
The index of industrial production, or IIP, rose 10.8% in the first eight months, below the nationwide increase of 11.9%. Manufacturing and processing alone grew 10.8%, slowing from 12.1% in the first quarter.
Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by around 12.7%, although Hoang cautioned that the growth did not fully reflect actual purchasing power because of high prices.
Exports increased 7.8%, well below the national growth rate of 22.8%. Imports rose 11.9%, compared with a nationwide increase of 35.3%.
Public investment disbursement reached 57.7% of the annual plan. To meet the full-year target, the city will need to disburse at least 11% of the plan in each remaining month, twice the pace recorded at the beginning of the year.
On the budget front, revenue in the first eight months exceeded 70% of the annual target, while expenditure reached only 37.6%. High prices were flagged as a potential risk to production and consumption, with the city targeting inflation control at 4.5%.
According to calculations by HCMC’s statistical authority, achieving the third-quarter growth target of 11.7% would require key indicators to post exceptionally strong gains in September: industrial production would need to rise 16%, total retail sales 21.4%, exports 45.2%, while public investment disbursement would have to reach 70-80%. Hoang described the challenge as “extremely intense pressure.”
He proposed three key groups of measures: accelerating public investment disbursement to provide leverage for private investment; closely monitoring private capital flows and stimulating consumer demand while keeping inflation under control; and supporting businesses by addressing the difficulties they face.
Vietnamnet.vn
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