This is no longer just a technical statistic in the population and health sector. It signals a crisis threatening the collapse of traditional family structures, as more young people cannot "settle down," leading to delayed or rejected marriage and childbirth. A "three no’s" generation is quietly emerging: no home, no marriage, no children.

Birth rates

International experience shows that once fertility rates have fallen sharply, they are tough to recover, even with the application of incentive policies. Japan currently has a TFR of 1.26; South Korea 0.78; the OECD average is 1.5 – far below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Vietnam, once a high-fertility nation, is rapidly becoming a childless society. The risk of "aging before prosperity" is more evident than ever.

Housing costs 

Skyrocketing housing prices significantly contribute to the declining birth rate. In major cities like Hanoi and HCM City, housing is out of reach for young people.

A 28-year-old IT engineer in Hanoi, for example, revealed that despite five years of high earnings, he cannot consider starting a family because a small apartment costs VND2–3 billion, while most young people earn VND15–20 million monthly.

Housing prices have tripled or quintupled in the last few years, while salaries remain stagnant. A 50 sq m apartment in Long Bien is priced at VND5.9 billion, or 118 million per sq m, an unrealistic figure for young people without family financial support.

Many young people are abandoning dreams of starting a family. Some choose solo living, freelancing, or prioritizing personal experiences. It’s not that they don’t want a family, but they’ve lost faith in achieving a stable life with current incomes.

A media survey found 62 percent of young people delay marriage due to financial reasons, with housing being the top concern. Trends seen in South Korea, Japan, and China are now emerging in Vietnam.

Aging population

Vietnam entered an aging population phase in 2011. By 2024, about 14.2 million people are aged 60 or older, projected to reach 18 million by 2030, or 25 percent of the population.

Combined with declining birth rates, Vietnam faces severe consequences: reduced labor productivity, shortages in social security and healthcare contributions, rising budget pressures for elderly care, and burdens on the next generation.

While Vietnamese life expectancy is 74.7 years, healthy life expectancy is only about 65 years. A society with longer-living but unhealthy elderly and young people unwilling to have children is a formula for a silent, long-term crisis.

Young people lose faith in future

“If I can’t afford a house, how can I have kids?” “Rent takes half my salary, what’s left to raise a child?” These are the concerns of young people when asked why they do not start a family.

Child-rearing costs, up to VND15 million monthly in big cities, deter young couples. Some marry but choose not to have children or have one child sent to grandparents in rural areas.

Many young people are abandoning the “work hard to buy a house” principle and switching to a lighter lifestyle: spending on accessible things like phones, travel, and personal experiences. They are not “lazy”, they have just lost hope in the ability to build a real home.

Socioeconomic consequences

Without timely policy action, Vietnam risks a dangerous cycle: Rising housing costs → Young people avoid marriage/childbirth → Rapid population aging → Labor shortages → Increased welfare costs → Reduced growth → Social instability.

It is time to look at the problem realistically and take drastic action. The state should not just call for a “two-child family model”, but must fundamentally solve the housing problem – the core motivation for young people to settle down, find a job, and have children.

Priority solutions include: massively increasing social housing supply for young people and newlyweds; imposing high taxes on speculators and vacant homes; ensuring transparent planning to lower costs for affordable housing; providing substantial credit support for first-time buyers; and implementing practical child-rearing policies beyond symbolic encouragement.

Vietnam is in its “golden population” phase, with a robust workforce. But if young people lose faith in achieving stability, owning a home, and raising children, this golden era will fade into a silent tragedy of a generation unable to carry forward.

Housing policy isn’t just an economic issue, but it’s a condition for a nation’s future survival. Vietnam cannot hope for a sustainable future if those tasked with building it lack the motivation to thrive.

Lan Anh