According to the Ministry of Health (MOH), Vietnam's total fertility rate dropped from 2.01 children per woman in 2022 to 1.96 in 2023, and further to 1.91 in 2024, the lowest level on record.

Over the past two decades, more women have been delaying childbirth, having only one child, or choosing not to have children at all. Besides personal and cultural reasons, the rising cost of housing is one of the key drivers.

According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors' Institute for Real Estate Market Evaluation (VARS IRE), in 2014, the average apartment price was approximately VND1.75 billion, which, adjusted for inflation, translates to around VND2.6 billion in mid-2025 terms. However, actual housing prices today have reached VND5.3 billion.

In Hanoi, apartment prices rose more than 70 percent between 2019 and 2024, while in HCMC they increased nearly 37 percent. A typical apartment now costs roughly 20 to 25 times the average urban household income. During the same period, the total fertility rate declined from 2.09 to 1.91 children per woman.

Clearly, financial pressure from soaring housing prices over the past decade has become a significant burden. As income fails to keep pace with housing costs, many families are postponing their childbearing plans or limiting family size.

International experience also highlights the link between housing prices and fertility rates. Research from the US National Bureau of Economic Research shows that in urban areas, a 10 percent increase in home prices results in a 1 percent drop in birth rates among those who do not own homes.

Conversely, for households that already own homes or hold multiple properties, rising housing prices can actually encourage earlier childbirth due to a greater sense of financial security.

In Vietnam, there were periods when both housing prices and fertility rates rose together. From 2001 to 2003, as credit was loosened and the economy grew strongly, the fertility rate rose from 2.12 to 2.23 children per woman. Between 2006 and 2008, it increased again from 2.07 to 2.08.

However, since 2021, as property prices surged, the birth rate began to drop significantly.

VARS IRE assesses that in the long term, the possibility of both rising housing prices and increasing fertility is highly unlikely. In urban areas, housing is gradually becoming a "privilege" for a small wealthy group. While this group may maintain birth rates, the majority who are unable to afford homes, are seeing steep declines.

"Housing is not the only factor driving down birth rates, but it is clearly a major barrier that impacts family planning decisions in today's economy," VARS IRE concludes.

Hong Khanh