For three consecutive years, Vietnam has faced a fertility rate below the replacement level - an issue increasingly seen as a national concern.

The recent decision by the Standing Committee of the National Assembly to approve amendments to Article 10 of the Population Ordinance is being hailed as a timely and necessary response.

Urgency of the decline

According to recent data, Vietnam’s total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 2.11 children per woman in 2005 to just 1.96 in 2024. In major urban areas, the situation is more severe: Ho Chi Minh City recorded the lowest fertility rate in the country at only 1.39 children per woman. Without strong intervention, this declining trend is expected to continue.

Dr. Pham Vu Hoang, Deputy Director of the General Office for Population (Ministry of Health), explained that Vietnam faces a serious demographic imbalance: regions that need more births are seeing sharp declines, while areas that need lower fertility are stagnating.

If this continues, Vietnam will face labor shortages, economic stagnation, and increasing pressure on its social security systems as the population ages rapidly.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute for Population and Social Issues, argued that blaming declining births solely on “modern lifestyles” or “fear of parenting” is too simplistic.

He pointed to deeper causes in Vietnam: high living costs, young families struggling to afford childcare, career-first mindsets among youth, and fears about the burdens of parenting.

A pivotal policy change

To address these root causes, the National Assembly’s Standing Committee recently approved amendments to Article 10 of the Population Ordinance No. 06/PL-UBTVQH11 (amended by Ordinance No. 08/2008/PL-UBTVQH12).

The new provisions grant couples full autonomy in deciding the number and spacing of their children and empower local governments to develop population policies based on regional fertility conditions.

This legal revision is viewed as a breakthrough. It removes previous regulatory barriers and opens the door for localized strategies tailored to actual demographic needs.

Deputy Director Pham Vu Hoang noted that allowing regions to create flexible policies is crucial, given Vietnam’s stark regional fertility disparities.

“Delegating decision-making to local authorities enables population planning that’s grounded in real-world conditions,” he said.

From legislation to real impact

However, experts caution that legal reform alone is not enough. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cu emphasized that this amendment is only a necessary first step. Effective encouragement of childbirth requires a robust policy package.

“The government must offer direct support to families raising children,” he said. This includes child allowances, income tax reductions, healthcare subsidies, extended maternity leave, newborn bonuses, waived preschool fees, and affordable housing options for young families.

In parallel, Vietnam must enhance public awareness campaigns promoting childbirth. Messaging should frame having two children as a civic responsibility. These efforts must be sustained and culturally resonant.

Policies encouraging childbirth should also be integrated into school curricula. Teaching the importance of maintaining demographic balance should begin early.

Local development plans must include birth rate targets, and population policy should be coordinated with community outreach to ensure wide reach and understanding.

As Vietnam consolidates administrative divisions, local governments must tailor population strategies to suit their specific realities.

Areas with high fertility may still need policies to reduce birth rates, while regions with low fertility should be incentivized to promote childbirth through supportive, adaptive policies that align with the pace of demographic transition.

Nhan Dan