This is no longer a technical number confined to demographics and public health. Behind it lies a cautionary tale about the potential collapse of the traditional family structure, as increasing numbers of young people are unable to secure stable housing, leading them to delay or even forgo marriage and childbirth. A silent generation of “Three Nos” is emerging: No home - No marriage - No children.

Fertility in free fall

Experience from other nations shows that once fertility drops significantly, recovery becomes extremely difficult - even with aggressive pro-birth policies. Japan now has a TFR of 1.26; South Korea’s is just 0.78; and the OECD average stands at 1.5 - far below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.

Vietnam, once known for its high fertility, is now rapidly transitioning into a “child-scarce society.” The risk of falling into the trap of “growing old before getting rich” is more real than ever.

Skyrocketing housing prices: The silent driver

It’s undeniable that surging real estate prices are a major factor in declining birth rates. In major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, housing has become increasingly out of reach for young people.

A 28-year-old IT engineer in Hanoi shared that even after five years of working with a decent income, he still doesn’t dare consider starting a family - since a small apartment costs between 2–3 billion VND (roughly 78,000–117,000 USD). Meanwhile, most young people earn around 15–20 million VND per month (about 580–780 USD).

Home prices have surged 3–5 times in just a few years, while salaries have barely increased. A 50-square-meter apartment in Long Bien is currently listed at 5.9 billion VND (about 230,000 USD) - or 118 million VND (approximately 4,600 USD) per square meter - an impossible figure for any young buyer without financial support from family.

Many young people are giving up on the dream of marriage. Some choose to live alone, freelance, and prioritize personal experiences. It's not that they don’t want a family - they simply no longer believe it’s feasible with their current income.

In a survey conducted by a news agency, 62% of young respondents said they were postponing marriage for financial reasons, with housing being the biggest concern. What has been observed in South Korea, Japan, and China is now beginning to emerge in Vietnam.

The aging population: A silent wave

Since 2011, Vietnam has entered the aging phase. By 2024, the country has around 14.2 million people aged 60 and above. This number is projected to reach 18 million by 2030, accounting for 25% of the population.

Combined with the sharp drop in fertility, Vietnam now faces major consequences: declining labor productivity; shortages in social insurance and healthcare funding; increased budget pressure to care for the elderly; and growing burdens on the next generation.

On top of that, while the average life expectancy in Vietnam is 74.7 years, the average number of healthy years lived is only about 65. A society where the elderly live long but not healthily - and the young avoid childbearing - creates a formula for a prolonged and persistent crisis.

When young people lose faith in the future

Many young people admit: “If I can't afford a house, how can I afford children?” or “Half my salary goes to rent - what’s left to raise a child?”

Raising a child in big cities can cost up to 15 million VND per month (around 580 USD), discouraging many young couples. Some who do marry decide not to have children - or only have one, then send the child to be raised by grandparents in the countryside.

A growing number of youth are abandoning the traditional "grind-to-buy-a-house" mentality and instead opt for simpler lifestyles: spending on attainable items like phones, travel, and personal experiences. They are not lazy - they’ve simply lost hope of ever owning a home or building a stable life.

The socio-economic fallout cannot be ignored

Without timely policy interventions, Vietnam risks entering a dangerous cycle:

Rising home prices → Fewer young people marrying or having children → Accelerated aging population → Labor shortages → Increased welfare costs → Slower growth → Social instability.

Solutions must not be delayed

It's time to face the issue head-on and act decisively. Merely urging people to “have two children” is not enough. The core problem - housing - must be addressed. Stable housing is the key for young people to settle down, work productively, and start families.

Urgent solutions should include: dramatically increasing affordable housing supply for young people and newlyweds; imposing high taxes on speculation and vacant homes; improving transparency in urban planning and cutting low-income housing development costs; offering real credit support for first-time homebuyers; and implementing practical child-rearing incentives that go beyond symbolic encouragements.

Vietnam is currently in a “golden population” phase, with an abundant labor force. But if the youth no longer believe they can live stably, own a home, and raise children, then this golden period may quietly dissolve into a tragedy of a generation that cannot carry the future forward.

Housing policy is not just an economic issue - it is a condition for national survival. Vietnam cannot expect a sustainable future if those entrusted with shaping it no longer have the motivation to endure.

Lan Anh