The market is expected to see strong differentiation, with capital costs and lending conditions increasingly differing between groups of banks and customers.

In recent months, banks have continuously raised deposit rates. As many as seven banks have increased their deposit rates so far this month, including Viet A Bank, Nam A Bank, BaoViet Bank, ACB, VietinBank, Techcombank and VIB.

Notably, actual deposit rates at Vikki Bank, a digital bank, have reached as high as 9.3 percent per year.

Prior to that, at the end of March 2026, the State Bank of Vietnam issued a directive requiring credit institutions and its regional branches to implement measures to stabilize interest rates.

Nguyen Van Phuong from the University of Economics of VNU Hanoi said the fact the deposit rates have reached a five-year high, along with regulatory intervention, suggests the system is entering a new and sensitive equilibrium.

"On one side is the pressure of liquidity, exchange rates, and inflation; on the other is the growth target and the endurance of businesses and borrowers. From a policy perspective, it is highly likely that interest rates are already in the peak zone of the cycle, rather than having room for a strong increase in the near future," Phuong said.

The current deposit and lending interest rates have created clear pressure on businesses and households, manifested in rapidly increasing financial costs, with many businesses starting to narrow their investment or only maintaining production at a moderate level.

The SBV has had to send a signal requesting the stabilization of interest rate levels, avoiding a situation where commercial banks continue to raise deposit and lending rates to chase liquidity.

“This shows that the regulatory agency recognizes that the room for further interest rate increases is very limited if they do not want to negatively impact growth, bad debts, and system safety. In other words, interest rates may remain high for a time, but the possibility of a strong, simultaneous increase across the entire system is not the main scenario,” Phuong said.

Also according to Phuong, the possibility of reducing interest rates in the future will depend mainly on three variables: inflation, exchange rates, and credit-growth developments.

If inflation continues to be pushed up by gasoline prices, public service prices, and food prices, it will be very difficult for the SBV to loosen monetary policy because it must maintain the stability of the currency's purchasing power.

If the exchange rate remains under pressure due to a strong USD, volatile international capital flows, or an unfavorable trade balance, then keeping VND interest rates relatively high is a way to reduce pressure on the exchange rate and capital flows.

Conversely, if inflation is controlled around the target and the exchange rate is more stable, while credit grows slowly and growth does not meet expectations, the pressure to gradually adjust interest rates downward to support the economy will increase. 

At that time, the possibility of small, step-by-step interest rate cuts appearing from the end of this year or next year is more grounded.

Scenario for interest-rate market

Dr. Nguyen Van Loc from Phenikaa University said that in the short term, deposit interest rates tend to stay at the current level longer, while lending rates may be adjusted flexibly according to the target audience.

“For banks, mobilizing capital is a matter of survival. When liquidity is not yet abundant, they can hardly reduce deposit rates sharply because they will lose capital sources to other investment channels such as gold, foreign currency, or banks paying higher interest,” Loc said.

He believes that the SBV's directive is intended to block the race for further increases, rather than to create conditions for an immediate reduction in deposit rates. 

Meanwhile, regarding lending rates, banks will face pressure from both the SBV and the market, being forced to share part of their profit margins with good customers to maintain relationships and limit bad debts.

Actual lending interest rates may differentiate more clearly. Businesses with healthy finances, good credit histories, and those in priority sectors may receive slight interest rate reductions or enjoy additional fee incentives, while high-risk groups will still find it difficult to see a decrease, or may even maintain high levels.

The discrepancy between banks will also become more distinct. Large banks, with a high ratio of non-term deposits and low capital costs, can keep mobilization interest rates at a reasonable level and flexibly adjust lending rates.

Nguyen Le