For nearly a decade, smartphone upgrades have mostly focused on familiar elements: sharper cameras, larger screens, and longer battery life. But Apple now appears to believe that’s no longer enough to wow users.

On Tuesday, Apple officially unveiled the iPhone Air, calling it the most significant design breakthrough in nearly ten years. “It’s so thin and light, it almost disappears in your hand,” an Apple executive described during the launch event.

A fresh breath in a sluggish market

The release of the iPhone Air comes at a pivotal time when Apple’s flagship product - and the smartphone industry at large - needs a revitalizing spark. After years of stagnant sales due to lackluster innovation, the market is starting to rebound. Yet consumers are keeping their phones longer than ever.

Whether iPhone Air can reverse this trend remains uncertain, but many experts believe a radically new design is more likely to drive upgrades than minor, iterative changes. More importantly, this model could signal the future design language for upcoming iPhones.

“The iPhone 17 line marks the biggest design overhaul since the iPhone X. That alone is a strong reason for users to upgrade,” said Francisco Jeronimo, analyst at International Data Corporation (IDC), in an email on Tuesday.

Slow growth and cautious consumers

IDC reported that Q4 2022 saw a record drop in smartphone shipments due to weak demand. Counterpoint Research also recorded eight consecutive quarters of decline throughout 2023.

In 2025, the outlook has improved slightly: global smartphone sales rose 1.4% year-over-year in Q2, according to IDC. Still, unemployment, inflation, and tariff uncertainties continue to weigh on consumer demand.

People are holding onto their phones longer. Morgan Stanley recently estimated that the smartphone replacement cycle has reached 4.7 years, potentially extending to 5 years by 2026. In 2024, Verizon’s CEO acknowledged that customers were using their phones for more than 36 months - a stark contrast to earlier habits.

“We used to change phones every year. That was an exciting time,” he said.

According to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, when users do upgrade, it’s often out of necessity - such as battery failure or screen damage - rather than excitement over new features.

The return of design as innovation

After years of minor tweaks, the iPhone Air reintroduces innovation through form. Following the iPhone X in 2017 - which removed the Home button and introduced Face ID - most changes have been incremental. iPhone Air breaks that cycle.

Though it comes with trade-offs, like having only one rear camera and lacking some features of the iPhone 17 or 17 Pro, the ultra-thin design is expected to attract users looking for a fresh experience without needing top-tier specs.

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, believes “bold design” will drive strong sales over the next 12–18 months. He estimates that out of 1.5 billion iPhone users, about 315 million haven’t upgraded in over four years - making them ripe for replacement.

Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee agreed. “iPhone Air could appeal to users hesitant to upgrade due to a lack of meaningful differences in recent models,” he wrote via email.

Moreover, iPhone Air could be hinting at Apple’s broader design direction. Its slim profile may be crucial if Apple enters the foldable phone market - where current models from Samsung and Google remain bulky when folded. In that context, thinness becomes a key advantage.

New tech and future vision

Beyond its design, iPhone Air introduces Apple’s new N1 wireless chip, promising better Wi-Fi and Bluetooth performance. This could be a stepping stone toward the long-rumored “portless iPhone,” as Bloomberg has previously suggested. In such a future, all connections would be wireless.

If successful, iPhone Air may revive Apple’s ambition for a cable-free device - once a controversial idea, but increasingly feasible as wireless technologies improve.

The broader tech landscape

Meanwhile, other tech giants like Meta, Google, and Samsung are betting heavily on AI-powered smart glasses that analyze surroundings and respond to user commands. Even OpenAI is reportedly collaborating with former Apple design chief Jony Ive to create a mysterious AI device.

This doesn’t mean smartphones will disappear. Just as laptops and desktops still coexist, phones are likely to remain essential - though their role may evolve.

Apple seems well aware of this shift. In an antitrust trial related to Google Search, Eddy Cue, Apple’s Senior Vice President, remarked: “Ten years from now, you might not need an iPhone.”

Against this backdrop, iPhone Air stands as Apple’s first real glimpse into what the iPhone could look like in the next era.

Hai Phong