Dinh Quang Hinh from VnDirect Securities said the stock market from January 15-19 was more positive than expected thanks to good news from the ongoing extraordinary National Assembly session. The approval of the two important laws, which have been long awaited, warmed up the stock market.

The market saw a busy week following good business results reported by listed companies and approval of the two laws.

Bank shares began attracting cash flow again, with the VN-Index reaching a peak this year on January 19.

Some bank shares reached historic peaks, including BID shares of the Bank for Investment and Development Bank (BIDV), ACB of the Asia Commercial Bank and LPB of LPBank.

Analysts commented that bank shares were the most positive, reinforcing the strong cash flow, which had positive influence on other shares, including consumer goods (+ 1.1 percent) and industrial real estate (+ 1 percent).

Closing last week, the VN-Index increased by 2.2 percent over the week before to 1,185.5 points, while the HNX-Index decreased slightly by 0.4 percent to 229.48 points, and UpCom-Index increased by 0.6 percent to 87.46 points.

BID witnessed an 8.4 percent increase, VCB of Vietcombank 4.4 percent, VHM of Vinhomes 4.2 percent, and MWG of Mobile World 9.9 percent.

Meanwhile, other bank shares saw slight decreases, including SHB (-1.2 percent), SSB of SeABank (-1.5 percent). BVH shares of Bao Viet Group fell by 1.3 percent.

However, liquidity did not see a boom. The amount of matched orders was still 10.8 percent lower than the 20-session average level. The trading value on three bourses decreased by 29 percent compared with the week before to VND15.868 trillion per session.

Foreign investors made a comeback last week with net purchase of VND454 billion after one year of strong sales.

Optimism

Hinh noted that bank shares last week continued an upward trend led by state-owned banks (BID, CTG and VCB). The upward trend could be seen in non-bank shares as well, including retail, steel and real estate.

Meanwhile, foreign investors increased their purchases in recent trading sessions. In general, the upward trend is prevailing and there is no sign of reversal. Moreover, the good business results of listed companies will help keep cash flow strong.

In their latest report, Hoang Huy and Nguyen Hoang Minh from MayBank Securities predicted that Vietnam’s economy will recover throughout 2024. The recovery will be supported by consumer recovery thanks to high export growth and improved household’s financial capability, as well as recovery of the real estate market.

The securities company has designed two scenarios for the VN-Index, with the VN-Index growth rate at 11 percent or 26 percent. The high growth rates have been predicted on the basis of a 19.8 percent profit increase and the stock market becoming an emerging market.

It put hopes on certain business fields, especially ones related to consumer goods, and raised the assessment about real estate from negative to neutral.

Vietnam Construction Securities (CSI) said there was a strong resistance level of 1,200-1,210 points, but with the strong rise of bank shares, the VN-Index is very likely to test the level in the trading sessions this week.

However, CSI found that trading volume and price increases were only seen in bank shares and shares with large capitalization value, not in all business fields. Therefore, heavy fluctuation is likely to occur when the VN-Index is above the resistance area.

CSI recommended realizing profits when the VN-Index comes closer to the resistance level and restrict pullbacks in upcoming sessions when share prices increase.

Analysts believe that the global economy will be weak if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and interest rates stay high. 2024 is believed to be a year of upheavals. However, the US economy may see slight, not serious, recession.

Manh Ha