A high-pressure final quarter for nine localities

Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, head of the National Accounts Department at the Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance, said Vietnam's economic growth in the first nine months of 2026 was supported by three main drivers: public investment generating additional economic activity, industrial production and exports expanding market opportunities, and domestic consumption sustaining growth in trade and services.

New growth drivers, including science and technology, innovation and the digital economy, are gaining momentum and gradually making their way into high-tech manufacturing and service industries. At this stage, however, they remain supporting factors rather than the primary engines of economic growth.

Vietnam's National Assembly has set a GDP growth target of at least 10% for 2026. With the economy expanding 9.01% in the first nine months, fourth-quarter GDP would need to grow by approximately 12.5% to meet the full-year target, about 4.1 percentage points higher than in the same quarter of 2025.

Hanh described the target as extremely challenging and demanding.

On October 3, 2026, the government issued Resolution 312/NQ-CP following its September regular meeting and an online conference with local authorities. The resolution included detailed fourth-quarter growth scenarios for industries, sectors, provinces and cities.

Under the government's scenario, nine localities are required to achieve growth exceeding 15% in the fourth quarter.

Lang Son, a northern border province, faces the highest target at 18.41%. Its economy grew just 7.52% in the first nine months, against a full-year target of 10.61%.

The other eight localities are Vinh Long at 17.25%, Thanh Hoa at 17.10%, Ca Mau at 16.70%, Quang Tri at 16.64%, Hanoi at 16.55%, Can Tho at 16.08%, Hai Phong at 15.39% and Tuyen Quang at 15.04%.

Another 12 localities have been assigned fourth-quarter growth targets ranging from 13% to below 15%. They include An Giang at 14.95%, Cao Bang at 14.86%, Nghe An at 14.51%, Bac Ninh at 14.37%, Quang Ninh at 14.24%, Dien Bien at 13.97%, Son La at 13.85%, Hue at 13.72%, Dak Lak at 13.62%, Da Nang at 13.61%, Phu Tho at 13.50% and Ho Chi Minh City at 13.23%.

Six other localities have targets below 13%: Lam Dong at 12.87%, Lao Cai at 12.66%, Hung Yen at 12.14%, Gia Lai at 11.33%, Lai Chau at 11.16% and Dong Thap at 10.36%.

Local authorities urged to act quickly and remove bottlenecks

For provinces facing particularly demanding targets, such as Lang Son, the question is how to achieve growth of 18.41% during the final months of the year.

Speaking to VietNamNet, Dr. Nguyen Minh Thao, head of the Business Environment and Competitiveness Research Department at the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), said local authorities must closely follow their established growth scenarios while concentrating on the economic drivers most capable of delivering results before year-end.

According to Thao, the government assigned growth targets to provinces and cities at the beginning of the year based on their economic structures and development potential.

Particular attention has been given to localities making substantial contributions to national GDP. In some years, just five or six provinces and centrally governed cities have accounted for approximately half of the country's economic output.

These major economic centers, she said, need to accelerate to provide momentum for nationwide growth.

The first step is for each locality to assess the gap between its current performance and assigned targets, then identify the industries and sectors that need to expand more rapidly during the remaining months.

Thao said public investment remains one of the most important growth drivers. Provincial and municipal authorities should accelerate project implementation and the disbursement of public investment funds.

They should also capitalize on stronger consumer spending toward the end of the year and in preparation for Tet, Vietnam's Lunar New Year holiday, to boost retail sales and consumer service revenue. This would increase the contribution of consumption and services to economic growth.

Exports offer another opportunity. Demand in certain overseas markets typically rises toward year-end, allowing local businesses to increase shipments and contribute more to overall growth.

According to the Ministry of Finance, disbursement of state budget-funded public investment reached VND652 trillion (approximately $25.1 billion) as of October 8, 2026, equivalent to 63.8% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister.

Private investment is another source of capital that needs to be unlocked.

Thao acknowledged that the limited time remaining in the year makes a dramatic breakthrough difficult. Nevertheless, removing obstacles to investment and business operations remains essential.

Public investment not only contributes directly to economic growth but can also generate momentum and attract additional resources from private businesses.

To ensure these measures deliver results, local authorities need to monitor progress closely, potentially reviewing performance every week rather than relying solely on monthly assessments.

Problems involving land clearance, construction material supplies, prices and external market developments must be addressed promptly.

When international markets experience unfavorable changes, such as fluctuations in fuel and raw material prices, local governments need rapid-response mechanisms to keep production and business operations running, minimize disruptions and create conditions for stronger growth.

Growth efforts must begin early, not just at year-end

For sustainable growth, Thao said one important lesson from public investment disbursement is that implementation must begin at the start of the year rather than waiting until performance falls short of expectations before accelerating in the final months.

Growth targets should be accompanied by realistic implementation scenarios based on an accurate assessment of each locality's capabilities and available resources.

These scenarios should also be reviewed regularly and adjusted when necessary to avoid setting targets that exceed what can reasonably be achieved.

Stronger monitoring mechanisms are equally important.

Instead of waiting until the end of each quarter to assess performance, local authorities should continuously track progress, identify indicators at risk of falling short and introduce corrective measures in time.

Depending on local conditions, provinces and cities could establish dedicated steering committees or appropriate management mechanisms to improve oversight.

Thao also emphasized the need for local authorities to anticipate potential market disruptions, particularly changes in international fuel and raw material prices.

Contingency plans should be prepared in advance to minimize the impact on production and business activities and maintain economic continuity.

Over the longer term, growth cannot depend solely on increasing investment capital. Greater attention must be paid to generating higher added value.

Science and technology, digital transformation and innovation should therefore play a more prominent role in the design and implementation of economic development policies.

"Growth driven by science and technology offers a path to rapid breakthroughs and long-term sustainability," Thao stressed.

Nguyen Le