Northern Vietnam is currently experiencing heavy rain due to the effects of Storm No. 2. The region is expected to continue seeing significant rainfall over the next month. With the influence of La Nina, extreme weather conditions, including frequent storms and floods, are anticipated through the end of the year.

Storm No. 2 made landfall in Quang Ninh province early on July 23, ending a record-breaking period of over 640 days without a storm hitting the mainland.

By the afternoon, the storm had weakened into a tropical depression and then into a low-pressure area over Lang Son and Quang Ninh provinces. However, the storm’s circulation continues to cause substantial rainfall in Northern provinces.

According to Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Storm No. 2 was complex due to its rapid formation from a tropical depression over the South China Sea. The storm exhibited frequent changes in intensity and trajectory within a short period.

Experts noted that the storm was relatively strong over the sea, with wind speeds reaching level 10 and gusts exceeding level 12 at the Bạch Long Vỹ Station (Hai Phong). By the time it reached the coast, the storm's intensity had diminished to levels 6-7, with gusts of levels 8-9.

Khiem highlighted that the storm’s circulation has brought extremely heavy rain, with some areas receiving over 200mm of rainfall. “With such heavy rainfall in a short period, there is a high risk of urban flooding in low-lying areas and potential landslides in mountainous regions,” he warned.

Weather forecast for the next month

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting expects rainfall in Northern Vietnam, Central Highlands, and Southern Vietnam to be approximately 5-20% above the long-term average over the next month (until August 20, 2024). Conversely, rainfall in Central Vietnam is expected to be 20-40% below average.

Meteorologists also anticipate the possibility of 1-2 more storms or tropical depressions forming over the East Sea, which may impact the mainland.

Despite the heavy rain, the forecast indicates that there will still be periods of intense heat, especially in Northern and Central Vietnam.

Other regions are expected to experience several days of scattered showers and thunderstorms, with possible extended periods of moderate to heavy rain lasting 2-4 days.

Across the country, it is crucial to remain vigilant for thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, and hail.

Extreme weather forecast for the end of the year

Meteorologists predict that extreme weather will become more severe through the end of the year due to La Nina's influence.

Nguyen Van Huong, Head of Weather Forecasting at the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, stated that La Nina conditions could develop with a 65-75% probability from now until September 2024 and may persist into late 2024 and early 2025. La Nina will coincide with the rainy season in Northern Vietnam (July-September) and Central Vietnam (September-November).

During this rainy season, with a total rainfall 10-30% above the long-term average, there is a high risk of localized flooding, landslides, and urban inundation.

Regarding storms and tropical depressions, the forecast indicates that the number of storms might increase. “We anticipate around 11-12 storms or tropical depressions in the South China Sea by the end of 2024, with approximately half likely to affect the mainland,” Huong noted.

He emphasized the need to prepare for the possibility of storms or tropical depressions forming directly over the East Sea.

Additionally, Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, indicated that La Nina conditions are expected to persist from November 2024 to January 2025 with a 70-80% probability. During this period, there may be 3-4 storms or tropical depressions, with 1-2 potentially making landfall.

Cold air activity is expected to begin in September-October 2024, intensifying in December 2024 and January 2025, with a chance of severe cold spells and frost.

Bao Anh