Ta Thi Hong An, a forecaster at Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, has outlined the country’s weather outlook through early 2027.

After remaining strong for several weeks, El Nino officially reached very strong intensity in the second week of September 2026.

An said meteorological records dating back to 1950 show that this is only the sixth time El Nino has reached this level of intensity.

The most recent very strong El Nino occurred in 2015-2016, bringing severe drought and historic water shortages to Vietnam’s south-central region, Central Highlands and southern provinces.

The national weather agency expects El Nino to remain at very strong intensity through the end of 2026 and says it is highly likely to reach its peak.

During the first three months of 2027, El Nino is expected to remain strong, although the probability and severity of its impacts are forecast to gradually decline.

Fewer storms, weaker cold spells expected

The exceptionally strong El Nino is expected to significantly alter weather patterns across Vietnam in late 2026 and early 2027, according to the forecaster.

From now through the end of 2026, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea, internationally known as the East Sea, as well as those directly affecting Vietnam’s mainland, is forecast to be below the long-term average.

Cold air is also expected to be weaker than usual during the 2026-2027 winter. Severe cold spells are forecast to arrive later, with fewer cold days than the seasonal average.

High risk of drought and saltwater intrusion

The most serious concern is a widespread and substantial rainfall deficit through the end of 2026.

The shortage is expected to be most pronounced along Vietnam’s south-central coast, in the Central Highlands and across southern Vietnam, where rainfall is forecast to be 20-40% below normal. The rainy season in these areas is also expected to end earlier than usual.

An said the first months of 2027 are likely to bring little rainfall, while hot weather is expected to arrive early in southern Vietnam.

The combination of early heat and depleted water supplies poses a high risk of drought, freshwater shortages for households and production, as well as severe saltwater intrusion.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said it would continue to closely monitor El Nino and provide regular updates so residents and authorities can prepare for potential natural disasters.

Bao Anh